Firm-specific risk-neutral distributions with options and CDS
We propose a method to extract the risk-neutral distribution of fi rm-specifi c stock returns using both options and credit default swaps (CDS).
BIS
Investing like conglomerates: is diversification a blessing or curse for China's local governments?
This paper examines how China's local governments make investment via financing vehicles (LGFVs) and provides new insights on often-criticised LGFVs from a different perspective.
Covid-19 and cyber risk in the financial sector
The financial sector has been hit by hackers relatively more often than other sectors during the Covid-19 pandemic. While this has not yet led to significant disruptions or a systemic impact, there are substantial risks from cyber attacks for financial institutions, their staff and their customers going forward. Financial authorities are working to mitigate cyber risks, including through international cooperation.
Understanding bank and non-bank credit cycles: a structural exploration
We explore the structural drivers of bank and nonbank credit cycles using a medium-scale DSGE model with two types of financial intermediation. We posit economy-wide and sectoral disturbances in both macro and financial sectors.
Sovereign credit and exchange rate risks: evidence from Asia-Pacific local currency bonds
We study the dynamic properties of sovereign bonds in emerging market economies and their associated risk premiums. We focus on the properties of credit spreads, exchange rates, and their interaction.
Trade sentiment and the stock market: new evidence based on big data textual analysis of Chinese media
Trade tensions between China and US have played an important role in swinging global stock markets but effects are difficult to quantify. We develop a novel trade sentiment index (TSI) based on textual analysis and machine learning applied on a big data pool that assesses the positive or negative tone of the Chinese media coverage, and evaluates its capacity to explain the behaviour of 60 global equity markets.
E-commerce in the pandemic and beyond
E-commerce has ramped up during the pandemic around the world. The growth has differed across sectors and over different stages of the pandemic. Novel data sources can help to follow these trends. The growth of e-commerce has been higher in countries where there were more stringent containment measures and where e-commerce was initially less developed. Some changes in consumers' shopping habits and payment behaviour may be longer-lasting. This may have implications for structural change and the growth of the digital economy.
Firm-level R&D after periods of intense technological innovation: the role of investor sentiment
Following periods of intense technological innovation, R&D is a critical driver of technology diffusion, but it is subject to frictions that can lower it below the level firms would undertake otherwise. We study whether sentiment can counterbalance these frictions and thus strengthen the link between firm-level R&D and lagged aggregate innovation. We find a positive answer for low-tech firms, which represent the main conduit for technology diffusion.
The globalisation of inflation in the European emerging countries
This paper studies inflation globalisation in the European emerging countries by measuring inflation co-movement across the region and assessing how local inflation rates reacted to global factors.
Demographic shifts, macroprudential policies, and house prices
This paper investigates how recent demographic changes – population aging and the rising number of single-person households – affect house price growth using 95 district-level data in Korea from Q1 2008 to Q4 2017.
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