IFDP Paper: Transmission Growth-at-Risk: How Foreign Financial Vulnerabilities Shape U.S. Growth Prospects

Sai Ma, Viktors Stebunovs, Judit TemesvaryWe develop a Transmission Growth-at-Risk (TGaR) framework that incorporates foreign financial vulnerabilities as predictors of U.S. downside growth risk. We distinguish financial conditions, which measure current tightness in credit markets, from financial vulnerabilities, which measure structural fragilities that can amplify shocks.

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