Unpicking the pensions triple lock: where it came from, and what might happen next

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has made the politically risky decision to adjust the pensions triple lock from April 2030.

Speaking at this year’s Labour Party Conference, he said: “Some may not realise it but older people with nothing more than the state pension, or only a little more, can find themselves paying care charges today from that small income. Under my plan, this will no longer happen.”

Fiscal integration as a Pareto improvement

Fiscal integration in a currency union is generally understood as a transfer from fiscally strong to fiscally weak countries. I show that this changes when common debt is paired with a non-defaultable common tax, even if national debt remains defaultable. The risky country gains from intertemporal trade: it receives a grant financed by a perpetual obligation it discounts more heavily than lenders do. The cost to the safe member is second-order and the tax removes it by insuring imperfectly correlated cycles rather than transferring resources in expectation.

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