Drivers of the labour force in the euro area

This article examines the drivers and macroeconomic implications of the recent significant expansion of the euro area labour force, which reached a record high of 173 million people in 2025. The increase reflects rising labour force participation across demographic groups and sustained net migration, with older, more educated and foreign workers accounting for much of the growth.

What drives employment trends among older workers?

This box shows that older workers have contributed significantly to euro area employment growth in recent years, largely because they are retiring later. The share of retired individuals in the total population shows little sensitivity to the economic cycle, but has decreased steadily over the past two decades, with this decline having shifted more towards older age groups. The share of retirees is still falling among individuals in their early to mid-60s and appears likely to also do so among older age groups.

The role of judgement in supervisory scores and additional capital requirements assigned to banks

We empirically analyse the role of judgement in assigning overall scores by the euro area supervisors as part of the yearly Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP), which evaluates banks’ risks and sets supervisory actions. We also analyse its role in shaping the drivers of the Pillar 2 capital requirement (P2R) that banks must fulfil. We find that supervisors actively adjust the weight of the components of the overall score to reflect qualitative information, thereby smoothing fluctuations in the final assessment.

The role of biodiversity risk in shaping bank lending decisions

We examine whether banks incorporate firm-level biodiversity risk into their lending decisions. Using a large sample of syndicated loans matched to firm-level biodiversity risk measures, we document that borrowers with higher biodiversity risk face significantly higher loan spreads. Evidence on loan volumes is weaker, suggesting that banks primarily adjust along the pricing margin rather than restricting credit supply.

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