Government-guaranteed credit and populism

The phenomenon of political populism and its financial determinants have proved elusive. We utilise the sudden and uneven change in credit conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the unprecedented government credit guarantee programme in France to investigate whether liquidity support to firms affects political preferences. Drawing on credit registry data – which provides the universe of loans and credit lines to firms – we build a postcode-municipality-level dataset and show that government-guaranteed credit reduced the support for the far right but increased it for the incumbent.

Government-guaranteed credit and populism

The phenomenon of political populism and its financial determinants have proved elusive. We utilise the sudden and uneven change in credit conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the unprecedented government credit guarantee programme in France to investigate whether liquidity support to firms affects political preferences. Drawing on credit registry data – which provides the universe of loans and credit lines to firms – we build a postcode-municipality-level dataset and show that government-guaranteed credit reduced the support for the far right but increased it for the incumbent.

Using structural models to understand macroeconomic tail risks

Understanding asymmetric risks in macroeconomic variables is challenging. Most structural models used for policy analysis are linearised and therefore cannot generate asymmetries such as those documented in the empirical growth-at-risk (GaR) literature. This report examines how structural models can incorporate non-linearities to generate tail risks. The first part reviews the various extensions to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and the computational challenges involved in accounting for risk distributions.

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