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Estimating the full effect of a partially anticipated event: a market-based approach applied to the case of TLTROIII
This paper presents an event-study methodology that combines market data and survey-based probabilities to infer the full effect of a policy decision, as seen through the lens of financial markets. The market reaction to an event’s outcome reflects its surprise or announcement effect, and generally not its full effect. However, under certain conditions, the unobserved full effect can be derived from the observed surprise effect. Most importantly, the ex-ante probabilities of different outcomes must be known.
Estimating the full effect of a partially anticipated event: a market-based approach applied to the case of TLTROIII
This paper presents an event-study methodology that combines market data and survey-based probabilities to infer the full effect of a policy decision, as seen through the lens of financial markets. The market reaction to an event’s outcome reflects its surprise or announcement effect, and generally not its full effect. However, under certain conditions, the unobserved full effect can be derived from the observed surprise effect. Most importantly, the ex-ante probabilities of different outcomes must be known.
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