Macroeconomic policy increasingly requires assessments of risk rather than point forecasts alone. This paper develops a framework to compute impulse responses for scenario probabilities and the full predictive distribution of macroeconomic outcomes. The approach combines a regime-dependent mixture VAR with endogenous state probabilities and heteroskedastic shock identification, complemented by sparse sign and narrative restrictions.
The Market Participants Group (MPG) is a senior-level forum for financial market participants to share their views on relevant themes and narratives in financial markets with members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis used his address to the 81st UN General Assembly on Thursday to present Greece as a stabilising force in a turbulent international environment, combining messages of regional diplomacy, economic resilience and technological caution.
Scott Sheffield has some barbs for the oil major that acquired his Pioneer Natural Resources in 2024
The sector is one area where major international investors still think the UK capital is a world leader
Lancashire-born entrepreneur who co-founded Hargreaves Lansdown says people with private wealth ‘have been disenfranchised’
Financial advisory firms have yet to secure licences under regional headquarters programme, a key government initiative
Clients are seeking ways to ease access to locked-up investments
Legal advisers are helping European businesses find new sources of cash to fund growth
IAG settles with Swiss bank over A$2.8bn claim, ending a test case for global insurance sector
