An empirical analysis of budgetary follow-up in the EU

Macroeconomic projections are an essential building block of any budgetary plan. This column studies the one-year-ahead budgetary projections from the Stability and Convergence Programmes of EU member states and finds that the most important variable explaining budget balance errors is GDP growth. More optimism in GDP growth projections produces more optimistic budgetary projections. The findings call for delegating the construction of output projections to adequately equipped national independent fiscal institutions.

Reckoning with the growing demand for long-term care

Declining fertility rates and longer life expectancies are producing an ageing global population. This column investigates the challenges that rapidly ageing societies pose to systems of long-term care. To avoid shortages in the workforce, the long-term care industry should endeavour to improve working conditions while also recruiting workers from a larger pool. Investing in disability prevention and rehabilitation are also promising avenues to absorb pressure from growing long-term care needs.

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