Aleksander Berentsen, Hugo van Buggenum, Romina RuprechtMajor central banks remunerate reserves at negative rates (NIR). To study the long-run effects of NIR, we focus on the role of reserves as intertemporal stores of value that are used to settle interbank liabilities. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with commercial banks holding reserves and funding investments with retail deposits.
Sehwa Kim, Seil Kim, Anya Kleymenova, and Rongchen LiWe examine whether the adoption of the current expected credit losses (CECL) model, which reflects forward-looking information in loan loss provisions (LLP), improves banks’ information production. Consistent with better information production, we find changes in CECL banks' financial reporting and operations. First, these banks' loan loss provisions become timelier and better reflect future local economic conditions.
This paper studies the design of Ramsey optimal monetary policy in a Health New Keynesian (HeNK) model with Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) agents. The nonlinear model is estimated with maximum likelihood techniques on Euro Area data. Our objective is to deconstruct the mechanism by which contagion risk affects the conduct of monetary policy. If monetary policy is the only game in town, we find that the optimal policy features significant deviations from price stability to mitigate the effect of the pandemic.
This paper studies the design of Ramsey optimal monetary policy in a Health New Keynesian (HeNK) model with Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) agents. The nonlinear model is estimated with maximum likelihood techniques on Euro Area data. Our objective is to deconstruct the mechanism by which contagion risk affects the conduct of monetary policy. If monetary policy is the only game in town, we find that the optimal policy features significant deviations from price stability to mitigate the effect of the pandemic.
This box describes liquidity conditions and the Eurosystem’s monetary policy operations during the third and fourth maintenance periods of 2023, from 10 May to 1 August 2023.
Consumer perceptions of the factors driving inflation can be an important determinant of their economic behaviour and inflation expectations. In this context, in June 2023 the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey asked consumers what they believed was the main factor driving changes in the general level of prices for goods and services in their country over the past 12 months. Most consumers believe that price changes over the past 12 months were mainly driven by input cost factors, with corporate profits ranked second and wages third.
This box analyses the recent dispersion of economic activity across countries and sectors and assesses the role that reopening effects have played following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions last year. The box shows that the dispersion of growth across euro area countries was still relatively high at the beginning of 2023, while the dispersion of growth across sectors was in line with pre-pandemic levels.
After three years of below-average ocean surface temperatures, the arrival of El Niño this year implies risks to global food prices. El Niño is the warm phase of the temperature cycle in the East-Central tropical Pacific, when ocean surface temperatures exceed normal temperatures by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius. The effects of El Niño on climate patterns are complex, although the phenomenon is likely to put upward pressure on global food commodity prices due to higher risks of extreme weather events, which have already been taking place more frequently in recent years.
The survey on credit terms and conditions in euro-denominated securities financing and over-the-counter derivatives markets (SESFOD) is a qualitative survey which collects information on the credit terms and conditions offered by large banks active in the targeted euro-denominated markets. On the tenth anniversary of the launch of SESFOD in 2013, this article assesses the information value of the survey and its leading indicator properties. It analyses the underlying individual responses over time and the drivers of aggregate developments.
In 2022, the euro area current account balance recorded a deficit of 0.8% of euro area GDP compared with a surplus of 2.8% of GDP in 2021. This deterioration of 3.6 percentage points is the biggest annual change in the euro area current account balance on record. This article reviews developments in the current account components. It shows that most of this deterioration is expected to be temporary as it was driven by a decline in the goods trade balance on the back of sharp increases in energy import prices.
