Financial institutions

FEDS Paper: Financial Repercussions of SNAP Work Requirements

Samuel Dodini, Jeff Larrimore, and Anna TranfagliaThis paper considers the credit response of individuals after the implementation of new work requirements for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance (SNAP) benefits using a large nationally representative sample of credit records. It does so by exploiting county-level variation in the implementation of work requirements after the Great Recession in a difference-in-differences design.

Decrypting financial stability risks in crypto-asset markets

The stellar growth, volatility and financial innovation currently seen in the crypto-asset ecosystem, as well as the rising involvement of institutional investors, show how important it is to gain a better understanding of the potential risks crypto-assets could pose to financial stability if trends continue on this trajectory. This special feature provides an update on crypto-asset market developments and a general overview of risks stemming from unbacked crypto-assets and decentralised finance, given the way in which they have evolved and their specific characteristics and risks.

Climate-related risks to financial stability

The ECB is continuing its work on incorporating climate-related risks into assessments of financial stability. This includes a new analysis of disclosure, pricing and greenwashing risks in financial markets, as well as continued monitoring of financial institutions’ exposure to transition and physical risks. There is some encouraging evidence of better disclosure by non-financial corporations and increasing awareness of climate-related risks in financial markets. Progress made by banks, however, has been more limited.

FEDS Paper: The Anatomy of Single-Digit Inflation in the 1960s

Jeremy B. RuddRecently, the experience of the 1960s—when the U.S. inflation rate rose rapidly and persistently over a comparatively short period—has been invoked as a cautionary tale for the present. An analysis of this period indicates that the inflation regime that prevailed in the 1960s was different in several key regards from the one that prevailed on the eve of the pandemic. Hence, there are few useable lessons to be drawn from this experience, save that monetary policymaking remains a difficult undertaking.

FEDS Paper: Who Killed the Phillips Curve? A Murder Mystery

David Ratner and Jae SimIs the Phillips curve dead? If so, who killed it? Conventional wisdom has it that the sound monetary policy since the 1980s not only conquered the Great Inflation, but also buried the Phillips curve itself. This paper provides an alternative explanation: labor market policies that have eroded worker bargaining power might have been the source of the demise of the Phillips curve.

FEDS Paper: Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Tax Rate Changes

Saroj Bhattarai, Jae Won Lee, Woong Yong Park, and Choongryul YangWe study aggregate, distributional, and welfare effects of a permanent reduction in the capital tax rate in a quantitative model with capital-skill complementarity and household heterogeneity. Such a tax reform leads to expansionary long-run aggregate output and investment effects, but those are coupled with increases in wage, consumption, and income inequality.

The double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro area

The analysis of the conditions under which, and extent to which climate-adjusted financial risk assessment affects firms’ investment decisions in the low-carbon transition, and the realisation of the climate mitigation trajectories, still represent a knowledge gap. Filling this gap is crucial to assess the “double materiality” of climate-related financial risks.

The double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro area

The analysis of the conditions under which, and extent to which climate-adjusted financial risk assessment affects firms’ investment decisions in the low-carbon transition, and the realisation of the climate mitigation trajectories, still represent a knowledge gap. Filling this gap is crucial to assess the “double materiality” of climate-related financial risks.

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