Financial institutions

The impact of China’s industrial rise on the euro area

China’s industrial rise is a key external force influencing euro area trade, production and prices by reducing costs for euro area companies, via intermediate inputs, and increasing competitive pressures in European and global markets. Econometric analysis shows that the increase in the exposure of the euro area to intermediate goods imports from China has been positively associated with industrial production growth, whereas the increase in imports of final goods from China has tended to weigh on production.

Do lenders price diesel risk? Evidence from Dieselgate and low-emission zones in captive vs. independent banks

Transitioning to a sustainable economy and reducing air pollution hinge on appropriate economic incentives and financing conditions. The auto loan market offers a prime setting, as lenders’ credit terms can either discourage or incentivize the purchase of high-pollution vehicles. Using loan-level data, we examine how captive and independent banks adjust lending conditions in response to information and regulatory shocks affecting diesel vehicles.

Do lenders price diesel risk? Evidence from Dieselgate and low-emission zones in captive vs. independent banks

Transitioning to a sustainable economy and reducing air pollution hinge on appropriate economic incentives and financing conditions. The auto loan market offers a prime setting, as lenders’ credit terms can either discourage or incentivize the purchase of high-pollution vehicles. Using loan-level data, we examine how captive and independent banks adjust lending conditions in response to information and regulatory shocks affecting diesel vehicles.

Save your energy: how the war in the Middle East could affect household savings and the economy

This box analyses how households adjust their saving behaviour in an environment of heightened geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices. Using an empirical model together with two general equilibrium frameworks, it evaluates how adverse shocks to energy prices and consumer uncertainty could affect the saving rate, and it examines the implications for GDP growth, inflation and the distribution of consumption across households.

European temporary migration in a two country DSGE model

Free movement of labour across borders can influence business cycle dynamics in the affected countries. This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of temporary migration using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated to represent the “old” EU Member States (EU15) and the “new” Member States (NMS12). The model introduces fully endogenous temporary migration and combines it with search-and-matching frictions in labour markets.

Gas market shocks: tracing the effect on euro area inflation expectations

This paper examines the impact of natural gas market shocks on gas market dynamics, inflation expectations and realized inflation in the Euro Area using a BVAR model. Our contribution lies in a novel identification strategy that distinguishes between various types of shocks of unprecedented detail, leverages weekly rather than monthly data, and extends the analysis to both market-based headline and core inflation expectations.

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