Financial institutions

FEDS Paper: The Response of Equity Yields to a Long-Run Shock

Martijn Boons, Anthony M. Diercks, Petra Sinagl, and Andrea TamoniWe study how macroeconomic developments affect asset prices by analyzing the response of equity yields to a well-identified long-run growth shock. Using synthetic equity yield data from Giglio et al. (2024), we show that a positive long-run shock steepens the equity yield curve by increasing expected dividend growth while leaving discount rates largely unchanged.

State aid in the EU: an evolving landscape

State aid expenditure in the EU has risen in recent years against the background of economic shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s unjustified war against Ukraine and, most recently, the crisis in the Middle East, as well as a global resurgence of interventionist industrial policy. While traditionally aimed at addressing market failures and achieving policy objectives like regional cohesion and environmental transition, State aid has increasingly shifted towards supporting industrial competitiveness, decarbonisation and strategic resilience.

Five years of the ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts: evolution and insights

The Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) is a valuable information set for understanding the expectations of financial market participants regarding monetary policy and macroeconomic developments in the euro area. This article reviews the evolution of the SMA over the past five years, highlighting key development milestones, including changes to the panel, questionnaire and analytical use of the survey. It explains how SMA data enhance regular monetary policy assessments and the understanding of expectation formation.

Monetary policy under multiple financing constraints

The fact that monetary policy tightening has stronger effects than easing is a longstanding puzzle in monetary economics. This article studies monetary transmission in settings where firms face multiple financing constraints – a common and well-documented feature of corporate financing. Our theory shows that the multiplicity of financing constraints notably dampens the transmission of expansionary policy to firm borrowing and investment, while amplifying the transmission of policy tightening.

FEDS Paper: A Static Capital Buffer is Hard To Beat

Matthew Canzoneri, Behzad Diba, Luca Guerrieri, and Arsenii MishinIn a model with endogenous risk-taking, deposit insurance and limited liability may lead banks to make risky loans that are socially inefficient. Capital requirements can prevent excessive risk-taking at the cost of reducing liquidity-producing bank deposits. A policy that sets capital requirements just high enough to prevent excessive risktaking will move capital requirements pro-, counter-, or a-cyclically depending on the shock source.

IFDP Paper: Fiscal Policy, Portfolio Frictions, and International Transmission

Marcos Mac MullenI study the international transmission of fiscal policy and its impact on the real exchange rate (RER) and net exports. I document that periods of high government debt are strongly associated with a depreciated RER and subsequent increases in net exports. I present causal evidence that debt-financed fiscal expansions transmit primarily through deviations from uncovered interest parity, leading to a depreciated RER and increases in net exports over time.

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