Financial institutions

Reports of AI ending human labour may be greatly exaggerated

Recent advances in artificial intelligence have been met with anxiety about the future of jobs. This article examines the link between AI-enabled technologies and employment shares across 16 European countries, finding that occupations potentially more exposed to AI-enabled technologies increased their employment share during the period 2010-19. This has been particularly the case for occupations with a relatively higher proportion of younger and skilled workers.

Risk, monetary policy and asset prices in a global world

We study how monetary policy and risk shocks affect asset prices in the US, the euro area, and Japan, differentiating between “traditional” monetary policy and communication events, each decomposed into “pure” and information shocks. Communication shocks from the US spill over to risk in the euro area and vice versa, but traditional US shocks show no spillover effects to risk. Both monetary policy and communication shocks spill over to stocks, with euro area information spillovers being particularly strong.

Risk, monetary policy and asset prices in a global world

We study how monetary policy and risk shocks affect asset prices in the US, the euro area, and Japan, differentiating between “traditional” monetary policy and communication events, each decomposed into “pure” and information shocks. Communication shocks from the US spill over to risk in the euro area and vice versa, but traditional US shocks show no spillover effects to risk. Both monetary policy and communication shocks spill over to stocks, with euro area information spillovers being particularly strong.

Do debt investors care about ESG ratings?

We study the effect of changes in firms’ ESG ratings on the cost of debt of U.S. firms using a methodology change of an ESG rating provider. We find that loan spreads of downgraded ESG-rated firms in the secondary corporate loan market increase by about 10% compared to non-downgraded ESG-rated firms after the methodology change. The effect of ESG rating downgrades is not driven by the increase in the fundamental default risk of firms but rather by the premium charged by investors above the spread for default risk.

Do debt investors care about ESG ratings?

We study the effect of changes in firms’ ESG ratings on the cost of debt of U.S. firms using a methodology change of an ESG rating provider. We find that loan spreads of downgraded ESG-rated firms in the secondary corporate loan market increase by about 10% compared to non-downgraded ESG-rated firms after the methodology change. The effect of ESG rating downgrades is not driven by the increase in the fundamental default risk of firms but rather by the premium charged by investors above the spread for default risk.

FEDS Paper: Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation

Diego Comin, Robert Johnson, Callum JonesWe develop a multisector, open economy, New Keynesian framework to evaluate how potentially binding capacity constraints, and shocks to them, shape inflation. We show that binding constraints for domestic and foreign producers shift domestic and import price Phillips Curves up, similar to reduced-form markup shocks. Further, data on prices and quantities together identify whether constraints bind due to increased demand or reductions in capacity.

FEDS Paper: Uncovered interest rate, overshooting, and predictability reversal puzzles in an emerging economy

Rehim KilicBy using realized and survey-based expected exchange rate data, the paper presents five key findings regarding the Uncovered Interest rate Parity (UIP) and related puzzles in an Emerging Market (EM). First, Fama regressions, when not accounting for shifts in the UIP relationship, yield slopes that are statistically identical to one, irrespective of whether survey-based expected exchange rates or realized exchange rates are used.

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