Financial institutions

The central bank’s balance sheet and treasury market disruptions

This paper studies how Treasury market dynamics depend on adjustments to the central bank balance sheet. We introduce a dynamic model of Treasury bonds with traditional and shadow banks. In the model, both Treasury and repo market disruptions arise as a joint consequence of three frictions: (i) balance sheet costs,(ii) intraday reserves requirements, and (iii) imperfect substitutability between repo and bank deposits.

The central bank’s balance sheet and treasury market disruptions

This paper studies how Treasury market dynamics depend on adjustments to the central bank balance sheet. We introduce a dynamic model of Treasury bonds with traditional and shadow banks. In the model, both Treasury and repo market disruptions arise as a joint consequence of three frictions: (i) balance sheet costs,(ii) intraday reserves requirements, and (iii) imperfect substitutability between repo and bank deposits.

The unexpected upside of depreciation: bridging Europe’s income divide

This paper investigates the impact of foreign exchange (FX) shocks on income inequality across 31 European countries from 2003 to 2021. Leveraging a unique database of household-level longitudinal data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) and exchange rate data from the Bank of International Settlements, we investigate how currency devaluations and appreciations influence income distribution.

The unexpected upside of depreciation: bridging Europe’s income divide

This paper investigates the impact of foreign exchange (FX) shocks on income inequality across 31 European countries from 2003 to 2021. Leveraging a unique database of household-level longitudinal data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) and exchange rate data from the Bank of International Settlements, we investigate how currency devaluations and appreciations influence income distribution.

A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area

This report offers a strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area as part of the monetary policy strategy assessment 2025. It reassesses the factors shaping the inflation and economic environment in light of the recent inflation experience, analyses changes in structural factors and examines the implications for the inflation environment the ECB is likely to face. It also draws conclusions regarding the enhancements that need to be made to the existing analytical toolkit and inflation forecasting.

Inflation and floating-rate loans: evidence from the euro-area

We provide novel evidence on the supply-side transmission of monetary policy through a floating-rate channel. After a rate hike, firms with floating-rate loans keep prices elevated to offset higher borrowing costs, thereby reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Using monthly data on product-level prices, industry-level inflation rates and the euro-area credit register from 2021 to 2023, we find that the short-run impact of monetary tightening on inflation is 50% smaller when firms rely on floating-rate loans.

Inflation and floating-rate loans: evidence from the euro-area

We provide novel evidence on the supply-side transmission of monetary policy through a floating-rate channel. After a rate hike, firms with floating-rate loans keep prices elevated to offset higher borrowing costs, thereby reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Using monthly data on product-level prices, industry-level inflation rates and the euro-area credit register from 2021 to 2023, we find that the short-run impact of monetary tightening on inflation is 50% smaller when firms rely on floating-rate loans.

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