Beat the heat, the role of heat waves and droughts in regional EU economies
Europe is increasingly exposed to heat waves and droughts, but their short-term economic effects across sectors remain hard to predict. This study develops climate-augmented models to predict real growth in per capita value added across 1,117 EU regions (2002–2022), by combining economic indicators with high-frequency climate data. When using machine learning (ML, Random Forest and XGBoost), climate variables improve predictions in agriculture, while gains for other sectors are limited and do not outperform economic models.