Isabel Cairó, Shigeru Fujita, and Camilo Morales-JimenezThe fiscal transfers deployed during the COVID-19 pandemic were unprecedented in scale and strongly progressive. Using CPS/ASEC data, we document that the decline in employment during the pandemic was larger for low-income households and tightly linked to the intensity of transfer receipt, a pattern absent during the Global Financial Crisis.
Oliver Pfäuti and Edson WuHow do high public debt and fiscal uncertainty interact to shape inflation? We develop a model in which firms face uncertainty about both marginal costs and fiscal policy and choose how much information to acquire before setting prices. Higher debt raises steady-state taxes, affecting attention through two opposing forces. While these taxes reduce the profit stakes of mispricing, they make desired prices more sensitive to tax fluctuations, increasing the value of information.
Freddy García-Albán and Manuel González-AstudilloThis paper investigates which features of a Bayesian dynamic factor model improve U.S. GDP nowcasts and whether their contribution varies across historical episodes. Using pseudo-real-time information sets for 25 series, we estimate 16 combinations of dynamic heterogeneity, stochastic volatility, time-varying long-run growth, and a multiplicative outlier adjustment.
David M. Byrne, Robert Kurtzman, and Heidi L. WilliamsWe consider official and alternative data sources for measuring and projecting the role of U.S. manufacturing in the global semiconductor manufacturing industry.
Ben Ranish and Cindy M. VojtechAdoption of the current expected credit losses (CECL) methodology for loan loss provisioning significantly altered how banks recognize loan losses in their capital calculations. Because capital is a more costly funding source for banks, the accounting change affects banks' cost of funding loans.
Michele Modugno, Benjamin Roscoe, Sarah ZoiWe introduce the Financial Vulnerability Index (FVI), a novel indicator of financial vulnerabilities in the U.S. Unlike financial condition indices, which measure current credit market conditions and spike during periods of financial turmoil, the FVI displays the gradual build-up of structural financial weaknesses and declines as such episodes materialize.
Edward Herbst and Karen PageMultiple-horizon forecast panels are increasingly used to infer perceived monetary policy rules, but inference depends on how coefficients are pooled across forecasters, dates, and horizons. We treat this pooling structure as the object of inference.
Erik Heitfield, Mallick Hossain, and Katie MerrittUsing fine-grained data on 465,000 Florida home sales over twelve years and semiparametric machine learning methods, we examine how home prices respond to weather-related risk factors.
Daniel Beltran and Canlin LiWe develop a rich demand system framework to quantify the yield effects of shifts in U.S. Treasury supply and demand. Our model captures time-varying holdings shares and estimates sectoral demand elasticities using instrumental variables.
Ryan Kim, Bin Ni, Hyunseung Oh, and Choongryul YangWe study an income-account channel of exchange-rate transmission using matched data on Japanese multinational parents and their foreign affiliates.
