Federal Reserve

IFDP Paper: To Cap or Not to Cap? Energy Crises in a Currency Union

12/12/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Momo KomatsuDuring the energy crisis in 2022 some Euro Area countries introduced price caps on energy, while others did not, leading to about 30 percentage points higher energy inflation in uncapped countries. This paper investigates the trade-offs policymakers face with energy price caps in a two-country currency union model with shared energy supply. The cooperative, optimal outcome is for neither country to impose a price cap, since the cap is a costly market distortion.

IFDP Paper: Decoupling Dollar and Treasury Privilege

12/12/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Wenxin Du, Ritt Keerati, and Jesse SchregerWe document a strong decoupling between the convenience yield on the US Dollar and US Treasuries. We measure the convenience of the U.S. dollar using covered interest parity (CIP) deviations between risk-free bank rates, such as secured overnight rates since the benchmark reform. In parallel, we measure the convenience of U.S. Treasury bonds through CIP deviations between government bond yields.

IFDP Paper: Economic Diversity and the Resilience of Cities

12/12/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

François de Soyres, Simon Fuchs, Illenin O. Kondo, and Helene MaghinWe develop a framework to assess how economic shocks affect local labor markets and worker welfare, with a focus on city-level economic diversity. Using detailed worker flow data across cities, sectors, and occupations, we construct theory-consistent welfare measures. Our approach combines a dynamic discrete choice model with a dual representation that captures both direct effects and the insurance value of local economic diversity.

FEDS Paper: Access to Capital and the IPO Decision: An Analysis of US Private Firms

11/25/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Andres Almazan, Nathan Swem, Sheridan Titman, Gregory WeitznerWe analyze firms’ IPO decisions using detailed financial data on US private firms. We find that firms with higher external capital needs are more likely to go public. Following the IPO, firms increase their investment and debt issuance, resulting in leverage ratios close to their pre-IPO levels. Finally, newly public firms borrow from an expanded pool of lenders at improved terms, with a decrease in the within-firm dispersion in banks’ private risk assessments.

FEDS Paper: Settlement Speed and Financial Stability

11/20/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Agostino Capponi and Jin-Wook ChangThis paper investigates how settlement speed affects financial stability in payment networks, taking into account netting benefits, liquidity costs, and counterparty risks. Our analysis reveals that faster settlements have ambiguous effects on systemic risk and social welfare. The optimal settlement speed is determined by the network structure and the trade-off between netting efficiency and liquidity costs on one hand, and the probability of counterparty defaults on the other.

FEDS Paper: The Collateral Channel and Bank Credit(Revised)

11/19/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Arun Gupta, Horacio Sapriza, and Vladimir YankovWe examine the firm-level and aggregate effects of the collateral channel using administrative bank-firm-loan level data. We introduce novel instrumental variables related to the efficiency of federal district bankruptcy courts and show their importance as predictors of collateral use and banks' expected losses given default across collateral types.

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