Federal Reserve

FEDS Paper: Settlement Speed and Financial Stability

11/20/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Agostino Capponi and Jin-Wook ChangThis paper investigates how settlement speed affects financial stability in payment networks, taking into account netting benefits, liquidity costs, and counterparty risks. Our analysis reveals that faster settlements have ambiguous effects on systemic risk and social welfare. The optimal settlement speed is determined by the network structure and the trade-off between netting efficiency and liquidity costs on one hand, and the probability of counterparty defaults on the other.

FEDS Paper: The Collateral Channel and Bank Credit(Revised)

11/19/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Arun Gupta, Horacio Sapriza, and Vladimir YankovWe examine the firm-level and aggregate effects of the collateral channel using administrative bank-firm-loan level data. We introduce novel instrumental variables related to the efficiency of federal district bankruptcy courts and show their importance as predictors of collateral use and banks' expected losses given default across collateral types.

FEDS Paper: Central Bank Access and Flight to Safety

11/14/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Lucia Gurrieri, Chase Ross, Ben Schmiedt, Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, and Vladimir YankovWe examine whether access to the Federal Reserve's Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) affects money market fund flows during flight-to-safety episodes.

FEDS Paper: The Federal Reserve's Response to the 2023 Banking Turmoil: The Bank Term Funding Program

11/06/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

David M. Arseneau, Elizabeth Klee, Antonis Kotidis, and Michael SiemerThe Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) was an emergency liquidity facility set up by the Federal Reserve in March 2023 following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank which experienced a classic bank run driven by weak fundamentals.

FEDS Paper: Does Financial Stress Affect Commodity Futures Traders' Positions?(Revised)

11/04/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Shengwu Du, Travis D. Nesmith, and Yang HeppeFinancial stress can impact trading behavior in the U.S. commodity futures markets. To clarify the impact, we study absolute changes and relative exposure dynamics in traders' positions during two recent crises: the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. The nature of these two crises are very distinct, and we find that traders behaved quite differently.

FEDS Paper: Declining Search Frictions, Unemployment, and Growth Revisited

10/31/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Juan Carlos Córdoba, Anni T. Isojärvi, and Haoran LiThis paper revisits the conditions under which search models generate balanced growth paths (BGPs)—equilibria where unemployment, vacancies, and job flows remain steady as search frictions decline. Martellini and Menzio (2020) claim that such paths exist only when matches are “inspection goods” and match quality follows a Pareto distribution. We show that these conditions are sufficient but not necessary.

FEDS Paper: Do the Rich Really Save More? Answering an Old Question Using the SCF with Direct Measures of Lifetime Earnings and an Expanded Wealth Concept

10/31/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Elizabeth Llanes, Jeffrey Thompson, and Alice Henriques VolzThe question of whether affluent households save at a higher rate than other parts of the distribution has been asked by economists on numerous occasions since the 1950s. It is standard in this research to define affluent, or “rich,” households as those with high lifetime earnings or income to better ground the empirical question in relevant theory.

FEDS Paper: Understanding Preferences for Payment Cards using Household Scanner Data

10/31/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Marc Rysman, Shuang Wang, and Krzysztof WozniakWe use consumer panel scanner data to examine households' payment choices, a new application of such data. In particular, we study the long-term shift towards payment cards, as well as the role of transaction size in determining choices. We find that idiosyncratic household preferences are a key driver of payment choice.

IFDP Paper: The case for supporting liquidity supply in (some corners of) non-bank intermediation

10/15/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Sirio AramonteAfter the Global Financial Crisis, the liquidity-supply ecosystem that underpins nonbank intermediation shifted away from traditional dealers. Instead, it started to rely more on intermediaries with fragile funding structures and opportunistic investment strategies. Over the years, stress episodes saw the sudden retrenchment of these intermediaries, which amplified liquidity imbalances and market malfunction.

IFDP Paper: Retail inventories and inflation dynamics: The price margin channel

10/15/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Neil Mehrotra, Hyunseung Oh, and Julio L. OrtizUsing industry-level panel data and plausibly exogenous variation in supply conditions, we estimate the elasticity of retail price margins with respect to inventories along the retailer's optimal pricing curve. We find that this elasticity is negative and statistically significant, implying that lower finished-good inventories lead to higher price margins.

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