Central banks

IFDP Paper: Occupational Complexity, Capital-Skill Complementarity, and the Evolution of U.S. Wage Inequality: A Quantitative Analysis

08/14/2026 Federal Reserve Central banks

Colin Caines, Florian Hoffmann, Gueorgui KambourovWe document a strong, positive relationship between occupational problem complexity, measured from US data on problem-solving requirements, and occupational wage growth since 1980. In contrast, employment shifts toward more complex occupations have been modest, suggesting a race between the demand for and supply of complex skills.

The use of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy instruments and its monetary policy implementation framework in 2024 and 2025

08/11/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

The Eurosystem implements its monetary policy through a set of monetary policy instruments (MPIs). This report reviews the main changes in the use of MPIs and the associated developments in the Eurosystem’s monetary policy implementation framework over 2024-25. Inflation returned to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2%, supported by the smooth transmission of monetary policy. After completing the hiking cycle of 2022 and 2023, the ECB began reducing its key interest rates in June 2024. This easing phase occurred alongside further balance sheet normalisation.

Can structural reforms unleash private investment?

08/11/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper examines the impact of labour and product market reforms on private investment across 26 advanced economies from 1975 to 2020. To this end, we combine a narrative database on major structural reforms with local projections and augmented inverse probability weighting. We find that a major labour market reform typically increases the level of real private investment by 5% cumulatively within six years, while a major product market reform yields an impact of 3%.

Can structural reforms unleash private investment?

08/11/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper examines the impact of labour and product market reforms on private investment across 26 advanced economies from 1975 to 2020. To this end, we combine a narrative database on major structural reforms with local projections and augmented inverse probability weighting. We find that a major labour market reform typically increases the level of real private investment by 5% cumulatively within six years, while a major product market reform yields an impact of 3%.

Monetary policy and the rigidity of firm employment expectations

08/10/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper examines how monetary policy announcements affect firms’ employment expectations. Using German survey data, we combine high-frequency monetary policy surprises with survey response dates to identify the immediate and dynamic effects of monetary policy on firm-level expectations and subsequent employment. Contractionary shocks lead firms to revise employment plans downward immediately and persistently, eventually reducing employment growth. Initially, hiring plans are reduced, while layoffs increase later.

Monetary policy and the rigidity of firm employment expectations

08/10/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper examines how monetary policy announcements affect firms’ employment expectations. Using German survey data, we combine high-frequency monetary policy surprises with survey response dates to identify the immediate and dynamic effects of monetary policy on firm-level expectations and subsequent employment. Contractionary shocks lead firms to revise employment plans downward immediately and persistently, eventually reducing employment growth. Initially, hiring plans are reduced, while layoffs increase later.

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