Chancellor announces Bank of England appointments
His Majesty the King and the Chancellor have appointed three new non-executive directors to the Bank of England’s Court of Directors
Central banks
Statistical Notice 2026/08 - Changes to the criteria for monthly form BT reporting
Statistical Notices update the definitions and guidance contained in the Banking Statistics Yellow Folder
Minutes of the Securities Lending Committee meeting – March 2026
The Securities Lending Committee is a forum for market participants and authorities to discuss the UK securities lending market.
Announcement of the publication of the Governor's interview transcript
Statement from the Bank of England
IFDP Paper: Exchange Rate Transmission through Multinational Firms: Evidence from Japan
Ryan Kim, Bin Ni, Hyunseung Oh, and Choongryul YangWe study an income-account channel of exchange-rate transmission using matched data on Japanese multinational parents and their foreign affiliates.
FEDS Paper: The Flight to Affordability: Effects of Pandemic Rent Increases on Renters By Geography
Erin Troland, Isabella Agnes, Jessica Liu, Fatimah Shalaan, Michelle Tran, and Douglas WebberIn the pandemic era, people moved from high-density, expensive areas to more affordable areas, putting upward pressure on local housing prices. We examine the geographic distribution of rent growth during this time and its effects on renters.
FEDS Paper: Linear and Nonlinear Econometric Models versus Machine-Learning Models: Evidence from Realized-Volatility Forecasting(Revised)
Rehim KilicThis paper examines which representations of persistence and nonlinearity are most useful for forecasting realized volatility and whether machine learning adds value beyond econometric models designed for long memory and regime dependence. We compare HAR, ARFIMA, threshold HAR, smooth-transition HAR, and Markov-switching HAR with XGBoost and several neural-network models for the S&P 500 and 40 U.S. equities.
FEDS Paper: Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy
Tobias Adrian, Domenico Giannone, Matteo Luciani, and Mike WestCentral banks monitor macroeconomic risk through two traditions: scenario analysis, regularly used since the mid-1990s, and distributional forecasting, practiced since the late 1960s. The two are complementary but separate: scenarios provide narratives without probabilities, while predictive distributions provide probabilities with limited economic interpretation.
FEDS Paper: United States of U-Star
Hie Joo Ahn and Jeremy RuddThis paper estimates state-level trend unemployment rates (trend U-star) based on the trend components of unemployment inflows and outflows across unemployment durations. The estimated trend U-stars, particularly the portions attributable to long-termunemployment, have levels and dynamics that vary substantially across states.
IFDP Paper: Pricing Risk Globally: Intermediary Constraints, the Dollar, and the Global Financial Cycle
Ozge Akinci, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, and Albert QueraltoWe study how increased uncertainty about U.S. asset returns affects global asset prices and exchange rates in a two-country model with intermediary balance-sheet constraints. Empirically, uncertainty shocks widen global credit spreads, appreciate the dollar, and increase currency risk premia. In our model, higher uncertainty tightens intermediary constraints and lowers asset prices, reversing the counterfactual asset price increase in frictionless models.
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