Central banks

Forecasting the euro area job vacancy rate with earnings calls data

08/05/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

We analyse whether textual information extracted from firms’ earnings calls can improve forecasts of the euro area job vacancy rate. Using transcripts from euro area headquartered firms, we construct a monthly indicator of labour demand based on keywords related to labour market pressures and include it into a mixed frequency Bayesian VAR alongside standard hard and soft indicators. A pseudo–real-time evaluation shows that earnings calls provide timely and valuable signals for tracking vacancy dynamics.

MuSE: a multiple macro-financial scenario simulation engine for stress testing

08/05/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

We design an econometric framework to simulate multiple adverse macro-financial scenarios that can be used in top-down stress tests. First, we create a financial stress index informed by shocks generated via a non-parametric copula estimated on a large dataset of daily financial indicators. Second, we simulate the joint dynamics of macroeconomic indicators conditional on the copula-based financial shocks in a large multi-country Bayesian VAR model.

Europe’s venture capital gap and the financing of high-growth firms

08/04/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This box examines EU venture capital market developments and the implications for firm financing and growth. Venture capital in the EU remains limited in scale and fragmented across national markets, with gaps particularly evident at later stages of financing where they are partially filled by non-EU investors. Although venture capital from outside the EU can help firms expand, a strong reliance on external investors may reduce Europe’s ability to retain the economic gains generated by its entrepreneurial ecosystem.

On-the-job search in Europe and the U.S.: precautionary vs. job ladder motives

08/04/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

While employer-to-employer (E2E) transitions are by now well-documented, these data alone cannot reveal what drives mobility: who searches, why, and how search translates into transitions. Using novel panel data from the ECB and NY Fed consumer expectations surveys, we provide the first systematic cross-country analysis of on-the job search (OJS) and E2E transitions across eleven euro area countries and the U.S. Our data uniquely include direct measures of OJS and its motives (job loss expectations for precautionary, pay satisfaction for job ladder) for all workers, not just searchers.

Severity over quantity. Drivers of supervisory capital add-ons in internal ratings-based models

08/04/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

Banks use their internal models to estimate capital requirements in a risk-sensitive way, subject to a set of rules laid down in banking regulation. However, these models are not flawless as the usage of models suffers from imperfections, such as oversimplifications or wrong assumptions. As a result, risks may be underestimated. This is particularly troublesome, where models are used to assess risks to banks’ solvency. In this paper we address an important gap in the literature with regard to such model risk.

On-the-job search in Europe and the U.S.: precautionary vs. job ladder motives

08/04/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

While employer-to-employer (E2E) transitions are by now well-documented, these data alone cannot reveal what drives mobility: who searches, why, and how search translates into transitions. Using novel panel data from the ECB and NY Fed consumer expectations surveys, we provide the first systematic cross-country analysis of on-the job search (OJS) and E2E transitions across eleven euro area countries and the U.S. Our data uniquely include direct measures of OJS and its motives (job loss expectations for precautionary, pay satisfaction for job ladder) for all workers, not just searchers.

Severity over quantity. Drivers of supervisory capital add-ons in internal ratings-based models

08/04/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

Banks use their internal models to estimate capital requirements in a risk-sensitive way, subject to a set of rules laid down in banking regulation. However, these models are not flawless as the usage of models suffers from imperfections, such as oversimplifications or wrong assumptions. As a result, risks may be underestimated. This is particularly troublesome, where models are used to assess risks to banks’ solvency. In this paper we address an important gap in the literature with regard to such model risk.

Feeling the heat unevenly: energy prices and household consumption

08/03/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This box examines the mechanisms behind the aggregate and distributional effects of energy price shocks on euro area households, taking its cue from the recent surge in energy prices following the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. Drawing on a quantitative heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model calibrated to the euro area, it shows that energy price shocks reduce aggregate consumption through real income losses.

The transmission of shocks across sectors and the dynamics of sectoral prices

08/03/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper studies the dynamics of U.S. sectoral producer prices in a large Bayesian Vector Auto Regression (BVAR) model where the Input-Output (IO) matrix is used to structure their long-run relationships. The model provides evidence of a sectoral spillover channel in driving headline inflation without imposing such a mechanism in the model’s structure.

Appointment of Chair and Deputy Chair of the Enforcement Decision Making Committee (EDMC)

08/03/2026 Bank of England Central banks

Following an external recruitment process, the Bank of England (the Bank) has appointed Nicholas Segal as Chair of its Enforcement Decision Making Committee (EDMC), and Peter King as Deputy Chair, with effect from 1 August 2026.

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