Central banks

IFDP Paper: Fiscal Policy, Portfolio Frictions, and International Transmission

06/22/2026 Federal Reserve Central banks

Marcos Mac MullenI study the international transmission of fiscal policy and its impact on the real exchange rate (RER) and net exports. I document that periods of high government debt are strongly associated with a depreciated RER and subsequent increases in net exports. I present causal evidence that debt-financed fiscal expansions transmit primarily through deviations from uncovered interest parity, leading to a depreciated RER and increases in net exports over time.

FEDS Paper: New U.S. Business Establishments: Surging or Stalling?

06/22/2026 Federal Reserve Central banks

Dan Cao, Henry Hyatt, Toshihiko Mukoyama, and Erick SagerSince the 1990s, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported much more rapid growth in U.S. private sector employer establishments than has the Census Bureau – the gap reached roughly 1.6 million by 2023. Using linked BLS-Census microdata, we document two main drivers. First, a large and growing number of employers providing services to the elderly and persons with disabilities are in scope for the BLS frame but not the Census Bureau’s.

AI and the US labour market: effects on employment growth

06/22/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

The adoption of AI is reshaping the US labour market, with its impact on employment growth varying across occupations. AI has led to a job reallocation, particularly disadvantaging occupations with a high risk of AI substitution compared to those with low substitution risk. An econometric analysis confirms that AI has widened the gap in employment growth between employment in high-risk occupations and low-risk occupations between 2019 and 2025. However, this divergence in employment growth has not translated into wage disparities.

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