Central banks

Macroeconomic regime change and the size of supply chain disruption and energy supply shocks

09/24/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have complicated macroeconomic forecasting and policymaking due to unprecedented disruptions in supply chains and energy markets, suggesting a new macroeconomic regime. However, we are unable to reject the null hypothesis of no structural break in March 2020. We then examine whether these shocks have increased post-COVID-19. Their sizes were initially elevated, but then have been gradually returning to pre-pandemic levels.

Macroeconomic regime change and the size of supply chain disruption and energy supply shocks

09/24/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have complicated macroeconomic forecasting and policymaking due to unprecedented disruptions in supply chains and energy markets, suggesting a new macroeconomic regime. However, we are unable to reject the null hypothesis of no structural break in March 2020. We then examine whether these shocks have increased post-COVID-19. Their sizes were initially elevated, but then have been gradually returning to pre-pandemic levels.

Sustainability labels vs. reality: how climate-friendly are green and ESG funds?

09/24/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper assesses the environmental performance of sustainability-related investment funds compared to conventional ones across three dimensions: financed activities, portfolio carbon footprint, and investment in firms with ambitious science-based targets. We identify ESG funds using Morningstar (MS) strategies, the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation’s Article 8/9 classification, and funds’ self-naming. We find that the greenest funds invest more in low-carbon sectors, but their carbon footprints are comparable to conventional funds.

Sustainability labels vs. reality: how climate-friendly are green and ESG funds?

09/24/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper assesses the environmental performance of sustainability-related investment funds compared to conventional ones across three dimensions: financed activities, portfolio carbon footprint, and investment in firms with ambitious science-based targets. We identify ESG funds using Morningstar (MS) strategies, the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation’s Article 8/9 classification, and funds’ self-naming. We find that the greenest funds invest more in low-carbon sectors, but their carbon footprints are comparable to conventional funds.

The ECB-Multi Country Model. A semi-structural model for forecasting and policy analysis for the largest euro area countries

09/23/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper introduces the European Central Bank’s Multi Country model (ECB-MC), a coherent macroeconomic framework designed to support economic forecasting and policy analysis within the Eurosystem. The ECB-MC captures the economic dynamics of the five major economies in the euro area – Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands – which account for more than 80 percent of the euro area total GDP.

The ECB-Multi Country Model. A semi-structural model for forecasting and policy analysis for the largest euro area countries

09/23/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper introduces the European Central Bank’s Multi Country model (ECB-MC), a coherent macroeconomic framework designed to support economic forecasting and policy analysis within the Eurosystem. The ECB-MC captures the economic dynamics of the five major economies in the euro area – Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands – which account for more than 80 percent of the euro area total GDP.

Consumer expectations and actions during the recent trade tensions

09/22/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Recent trade tensions and tariff announcements are significantly influencing the behaviour and expectations of European consumers. As revealed by the June 2025 Consumer Expectations Survey, consumers expect tariffs to drive up inflation, weaken household finances and dampen economic growth. In response, consumers are reducing overall spending or switching away from US products. While lower-income households are likely to cut back on spending, high-income households are more likely to substitute goods.

Are workers willing to accept pay cuts in exchange for remote working flexibility?

09/22/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Since the pandemic, working from home has become more common. According to 2025 data, around 20% of employees in the euro area have a hybrid working pattern, i.e. they work from home between two and four days per week. Although a substantial share of workers (44%) work from home at least one day per week, most workers would not be willing to accept a pay cut in exchange for hybrid working possibilities. However, those employees who value being able to work from home would be willing to forgo up to 8.7% of their wages for this option.

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