Freddy García-Albán and Manuel González-AstudilloThis paper investigates which features of a Bayesian dynamic factor model improve U.S. GDP nowcasts and whether their contribution varies across historical episodes. Using pseudo-real-time information sets for 25 series, we estimate 16 combinations of dynamic heterogeneity, stochastic volatility, time-varying long-run growth, and a multiplicative outlier adjustment.
Following an external recruitment process, the Bank of England has appointed Carlos Conceicao and Alexander Justham as members of its Enforcement Decision Making Committee, with effect from September 2026.
The Bank's Court of Directors acts as a unitary board, setting the organisation's strategy and budget and taking key decisions on resourcing and appointments. Required to meet a minimum seven times per year, it has five executive members from the Bank and up to nine non-executive members.
This study applies a Local Linear Forest (LLF) for wage forecasting in France. The LLF outperforms benchmarks such as Random Walk (RW), Ridge Regressions (RR) and Random Forests (RF). We also show that adding foreign predictors (i.e. measures of real activity, price and wage pressures from Germany and Italy) to French economic variables significantly improves wage predictions in France.
High-frequency interest rate surprises around Fed announcements do not identify monetary policy (MP) shocks if markets are imperfectly informed. Instead, they can also reflect central bank information (CBI) shocks, when the Fed assesses the economy differently, and Fed-response-to-news (FRN) shocks, when markets misperceive the policy rule.
This study applies a Local Linear Forest (LLF) for wage forecasting in France. The LLF outperforms benchmarks such as Random Walk (RW), Ridge Regressions (RR) and Random Forests (RF). We also show that adding foreign predictors (i.e. measures of real activity, price and wage pressures from Germany and Italy) to French economic variables significantly improves wage predictions in France.
High-frequency interest rate surprises around Fed announcements do not identify monetary policy (MP) shocks if markets are imperfectly informed. Instead, they can also reflect central bank information (CBI) shocks, when the Fed assesses the economy differently, and Fed-response-to-news (FRN) shocks, when markets misperceive the policy rule.
Our Financial Policy Committee (FPC) meets to identify risks to financial stability and agree policy actions aimed at safeguarding the resilience of the UK financial system.
David M. Byrne, Robert Kurtzman, and Heidi L. WilliamsWe consider official and alternative data sources for measuring and projecting the role of U.S. manufacturing in the global semiconductor manufacturing industry.
Ben Ranish and Cindy M. VojtechAdoption of the current expected credit losses (CECL) methodology for loan loss provisioning significantly altered how banks recognize loan losses in their capital calculations. Because capital is a more costly funding source for banks, the accounting change affects banks' cost of funding loans.
