Central banks

A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area

06/30/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This report offers a strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area as part of the monetary policy strategy assessment 2025. It reassesses the factors shaping the inflation and economic environment in light of the recent inflation experience, analyses changes in structural factors and examines the implications for the inflation environment the ECB is likely to face. It also draws conclusions regarding the enhancements that need to be made to the existing analytical toolkit and inflation forecasting.

Inflation and floating-rate loans: evidence from the euro-area

06/30/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We provide novel evidence on the supply-side transmission of monetary policy through a floating-rate channel. After a rate hike, firms with floating-rate loans keep prices elevated to offset higher borrowing costs, thereby reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Using monthly data on product-level prices, industry-level inflation rates and the euro-area credit register from 2021 to 2023, we find that the short-run impact of monetary tightening on inflation is 50% smaller when firms rely on floating-rate loans.

The international dimension of repo: five new facts

06/30/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We analyze the international dimension of repo markets using novel euro area regulatory microdata. Our findings highlight the deep integration of funding markets across the Atlantic and the US dollar’s outsized role.

Inflation and floating-rate loans: evidence from the euro-area

06/30/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

The international dimension of repo: five new facts

06/30/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Evaluation of horizon scanning

06/27/2025 Bank of England Central banks

In December 2023 the Bank’s Court of Directors commissioned its Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) to conduct an evaluation of whether the Bank uses horizon scanning effectively to inform decision-making and support its mission.

IFDP Paper: Transformative and Subsistence Entrepreneurs: Origins and Impacts on Economic Growth

06/26/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Ufuk Akcigit, Harun Alp, Jeremy Pearce, and Marta PratoThis paper explores the symbiotic relationship between transformative entrepreneurs and inventors, which is crucial for economic growth. We utilize microdata from Denmark to demonstrate that while the relationship between IQ and general entrepreneurship tends to be negative, it is strongly positive among transformative entrepreneurs.

The Bank of England's supervision of financial market infrastructures - Annual Report 2025

06/26/2025 Bank of England Central banks

The FMI Annual Report sets out how the Bank has exercised its responsibilities in respect of supervising financial market infrastructures since the last report.

Enhancing GDP nowcasts with ChatGPT: a novel application of PMI news releases

06/26/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This study involves tasking ChatGPT with classifying an “activity sentiment score” based on PMI news releases. It explores the predictive power of this score for euro area GDP nowcasting. We find that the PMI text scores enhance GDP nowcasts beyond what is embedded in ECB/Eurosystem Staff projections and Eurostat’s first GDP estimate. The ChatGPT-derived activity score retains its significance in regressions that also include the composite output PMI diffusion index.

Enhancing GDP nowcasts with ChatGPT: a novel application of PMI news releases

06/26/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Central banks

Pages