Central banks

Financial market volatility and economic policy uncertainty: bridging the gap

06/16/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This box explores the relationship between financial market volatility and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Historically, financial market volatility and news-based measures of EPU have displayed close co-movement, albeit diverging at times and across countries. More recently, the rise in euro area EPU has reflected an intensification of an upward trend observed over a number of years, largely driven by developments in Germany.

A new model to forecast energy inflation in the euro area

06/12/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to model it accurately. This paper introduces a novel suite of Bayesian VAR models for euro area HICP energy inflation, which adopts a granular, bottom-up approach – disaggregating energy into subcomponents, such as fuels, gas, and electricity. The suite incorporates key features for energy prices: stochastic volatility, outlier correction, high-frequency indicators, and pre-tax price modelling.

A new model to forecast energy inflation in the euro area

06/12/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to model it accurately. This paper introduces a novel suite of Bayesian VAR models for euro area HICP energy inflation, which adopts a granular, bottom-up approach – disaggregating energy into subcomponents, such as fuels, gas, and electricity. The suite incorporates key features for energy prices: stochastic volatility, outlier correction, high-frequency indicators, and pre-tax price modelling.

Organized crime and banks: assessing the effects of anti-mafia police actions on lending

06/11/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This study examines how dismantling Mafia-connected firms affects banks’ lending practices. Using a unique dataset of 667 such firms and loan-level data from the European Central Bank, our analysis shows that anti-Mafia operations precede an increase in bank loans to businesses that operate in areas that are directly affected by these actions. Specifically, overall loan volumes increase by approximately 0.8 percent, which translates to an increase of €1.38 billion in bank loans to these firms.

From losses to buffer - calibrating the positive neutral CCyB rate in the euro area

06/11/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We study the impact of cyclical systemic risks on banks’ profitability in the euro area within a panel quantile regression model, with the ultimate goal to inform the calibration of the Countercyclical Capital buffer (CCyB). Compared to previous studies, we augment our model to control for unobserved bank-specific characteristics and year-fixed effects and find a lower degree of heterogeneity in the estimated effects across the conditional distribution of bank returns on assets.

Organized crime and banks: assessing the effects of anti-mafia police actions on lending

06/11/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This study examines how dismantling Mafia-connected firms affects banks’ lending practices. Using a unique dataset of 667 such firms and loan-level data from the European Central Bank, our analysis shows that anti-Mafia operations precede an increase in bank loans to businesses that operate in areas that are directly affected by these actions. Specifically, overall loan volumes increase by approximately 0.8 percent, which translates to an increase of €1.38 billion in bank loans to these firms.

From losses to buffer - calibrating the positive neutral CCyB rate in the euro area

06/11/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We study the impact of cyclical systemic risks on banks’ profitability in the euro area within a panel quantile regression model, with the ultimate goal to inform the calibration of the Countercyclical Capital buffer (CCyB). Compared to previous studies, we augment our model to control for unobserved bank-specific characteristics and year-fixed effects and find a lower degree of heterogeneity in the estimated effects across the conditional distribution of bank returns on assets.

Recalibration of the Indexed Long-Term Repo Operation – Market Notice 11 June 2025

06/11/2025 Bank of England Central banks

This Market Notice confirms the recalibrated parameters of the Indexed Long-Term Repo (ILTR) operation. In line with the Bank’s transition to a repo-led, demand driven operational framework for providing reserves, which ILTR operations are central to, the Bank is announcing an increase in the total amount of reserves available in each ILTR auction, an increase in the quantity of reserves available at fixed minimum spreads, and a gentler upward sloping supply curve than previously to ensure that clearing spreads only rise gradually.

FEDS Paper: Black Swans and Financial Stability: A Framework for Building Resilience

06/06/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Daniel Barth and Stacey SchreftThis article refines the concept of black swans, typically described as highly unlikely and catastrophic events, by clearly distinguishing between knowable and unknowable events. By emphasizing that black swans are “unknown unknowns,” the article highlights that the realization of new black swans cannot be prevented and motivates a need for policies that build the financial system's resilience to unforeseeable crises.

FEDS Paper: Changing Jobs to Fight Inflation: Labor Market Reactions to Inflationary Shocks

06/04/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Gorkem Bostanci, Omer Koru, and Sergio VillalvazoWe argue that inflationary shocks affect allocative efficiency by changing the rate and the characteristics of workers’ job-to-job transitions. First, using monetary policy shocks and survey data on search effort, we empirically show that a one percentage point rise in inflation increases job-to-job transitions by up to 4.5%, and workers with higher inflation expectations are more likely to search and do so more effectively.

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