Central banks

Car demand in the euro area through the lens of the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey

11/12/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Evidence from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) – based on a one-off set of questions introduced in the July 2025 wave – suggests that the majority of car purchases in July 2025 were of combustion engine vehicles, followed by hybrid and fully electric cars. Most purchases were of second-hand cars, reflecting concerns about the value of new cars depreciating quickly, particularly among high-income households, as well as limited access to affordable financing options, especially among low-income households.

Investment funds and the monetary-macroprudential policy interplay

11/12/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Is there an undesired side-effect of banking regulation on the non-bank sector? How effective is the non-bank transmission channel of monetary policy in the presence of macroprudential policy? Using a state-dependent local projection approach and a rich dataset capturing macroprudential tightening across euro area countries, we present strong cross-country heterogeneity. In financially conservative markets (Germany, France, the Netherlands), tight monetary policy combined with stricter macroprudential measures significantly contracts investment fund assets.

Investment funds and the monetary-macroprudential policy interplay

11/12/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Is there an undesired side-effect of banking regulation on the non-bank sector? How effective is the non-bank transmission channel of monetary policy in the presence of macroprudential policy? Using a state-dependent local projection approach and a rich dataset capturing macroprudential tightening across euro area countries, we present strong cross-country heterogeneity. In financially conservative markets (Germany, France, the Netherlands), tight monetary policy combined with stricter macroprudential measures significantly contracts investment fund assets.

Monetary policy transmission to investment: evidence from a survey on enterprise finance

11/12/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We study how survey-based measures of funding needs and availability influence the transmission of euro area monetary policy to investment. We first provide evidence that funding needs are primarily driven by fundamentals, while perceived funding availability captures financial conditions. Using these two measures, we assess how the effectiveness of monetary policy varies with fundamentals and financial conditions. Our results indicate that monetary policy is most effective when firms’ fundamentals are strong.

Monetary policy transmission to investment: evidence from a survey on enterprise finance

11/12/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We study how survey-based measures of funding needs and availability influence the transmission of euro area monetary policy to investment. We first provide evidence that funding needs are primarily driven by fundamentals, while perceived funding availability captures financial conditions. Using these two measures, we assess how the effectiveness of monetary policy varies with fundamentals and financial conditions. Our results indicate that monetary policy is most effective when firms’ fundamentals are strong.

The heterogenous transmission of monetary policy to household credit

11/12/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Monetary policy affects household credit heterogeneously through multiple channels. On the supply side, monetary policy tightening is typically thought to have a more adverse effect on lower-income households. The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey supports this assumption, with lower-income households reporting tighter constraints on credit access and higher consumer loan rejection rates than households with higher incomes during the recent tightening period.

The 2021-23 high inflation episode and inequality: insights from the Consumer Expectations Survey

11/12/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This article uses data from the Consumer Expectations Survey to examine the inflation episode of 2021-23, the mortgage rate responses and the perceived and actual effects of these developments on inequality. Public perceptions of inequality rose sharply during the inflation surge, with 73% of households reporting an increase. Cost-of-living pressures were cited as the main driver. By contrast, standard measures of income, wealth and consumption inequality calculated using data from the survey remained broadly stable in the euro area between 2022 and 2025.

Shifts in OPEC+ behaviour and downside risks to oil prices

11/11/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Oil prices have declined in recent months owing to a persistent oversupply in the market. A key driver has been a shift in the stance of OPEC+. The group has been increasing oil supply at a rapid pace despite already low prices, marking a clear departure from its historical role as a market stabiliser. A similar shift in behaviour occurred in 2014, when oil prices declined sharply and remained persistently low. This box evaluates the risk of a similar scenario unfolding today.

A machine learning approach to real time identification of turning points in monetary aggregates M1 and M3

11/11/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Monetary aggregates provide valuable information about the monetary policy transmission and the business cycle. This paper applies machine learning methods, namely Learning Vector Quantisation (LVQ) and its distinction-sensitive extension (DSLVQ), to identify turning points in euro area M1 and M3. We benchmark performance against the Bry–Boschan algorithm and standard classifiers. Our results show that LVQ detects M1 turning points with only a three-month delay, halving the six-month confirmation lag of Bry–Boschan dating.

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