Central banks

Activity and price discovery in euro area inflation-linked swap markets

08/07/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This article presents evidence from transactions data reported under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR). Its aim is to assess the information content of euro area inflation-linked swap rates as measures of inflation compensation. It finds that both the breadth and the depth of overall activity have increased notably. The process of price discovery resulting from trading activity appears healthy on aggregate, and the sectoral composition of activity has shifted towards counterparties that can be deemed more responsive to changes in the inflation outlook.

Fiscal aspects of European defence spending: implications for euro area macroeconomic projections and associated risks

08/07/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

EU government spending on defence is expected to increase in response to heightened geopolitical tensions. This increase underpins efforts towards reaching a higher NATO defence spending commitment, as agreed at the NATO summit of 24-25 June. This box explores the implications for the euro area baseline projections and the risks around the baseline, as reflected in the June 2025 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections.

Higher defence spending and its impact on household expectations

08/07/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This box examines euro area household perceptions of rising defence spending, a trend reinforced by EU governments’ commitments at recent security discussions. According to the May 2025 ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, 81% of households anticipate increased defence spending within the next year. Public debt is seen as the most likely source of financing, followed by cuts in other spending and tax hikes. Households predict a slight increase in inflation in response to higher defence spending, while their expectations on growth are more varied.

Real wage catch-up in the euro area

08/07/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Real wages have been increasing in recent quarters, recovering after their decline during the period of high inflation in 2022. By the first quarter of 2025 – when deflated by price indices that reflect consumption patterns, such as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices and the private consumption deflator – real wages had almost returned to the levels recorded prior to the inflation surge.

FEDS Paper: Mega Firms and New Technological Trajectories in the U.S.

08/06/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Joonkyu Choi, Serguey Braguinsky, Yuheng Ding, Karam Jo, Seula KimWe provide evidence that mega firms have played an increasingly important role in shaping new technological trajectories in recent years. While the share of novel patents—defined as patents introducing new combinations of technological components— produced by mega firms declined until around 2000, it has rebounded sharply since then.

Minutes of the Meeting of the Court of Directors held on 6 June 2025

08/06/2025 Bank of England Central banks

The Bank's Court of Directors acts as a unitary board, setting the organisation's strategy and budget and taking key decisions on resourcing and appointments. Required to meet a minimum seven times per year, it has five executive members from the Bank and up to nine non-executive members.

Bank lending implications of climate stress tests

08/06/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Do climate stress tests affect bank credit supply to brown firms? Using a difference-in-differences approach and detailed data on individual bank loans in the euro area, this paper provides novel evidence on the effects of the ECB’s 2022 climate risk stress test. Despite no capital implications or public disclosures, participating banks significantly reduced credit to greenhouse gas-intensive industries relative to nonparticipants. Among affected firms, smaller borrowers were more negatively impacted.

Bank lending implications of climate stress tests

08/06/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Consumer confidence and household consumption decisions

08/06/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Consumer confidence plays an important role in determining economic activity. This box presents a consumer confidence indicator derived from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey to explore its relation with household consumption. Analysis reveals that confidence levels vary by income quintile, with high-income households demonstrating greater sensitivity to economic news, in line with their greater financial literacy and higher share of discretionary spending.

What does increasing competition from China mean for euro area employment?

08/06/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This box explores the implications of rising import penetration of Chinese products for the euro area labour market. As China advances into high value-added sectors, such as vehicles and specialised machinery, its exports increasingly challenge euro area firms across domestic and third-country markets. Panel regressions, following Autor et al. (2013), show that greater exposure per worker to imports from China is associated with a negative impact on the employment rate.

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