Central banks

Financial stability considerations for monetary policy at the European Central Bank: conceptual framework and quantitative tools

The paper documents models used to analyse the interactions and trade-offs between price and financial stability at the European Central Bank. The paper describes a simple conceptual framework to think about the short- and medium-term trade-offs between price and financial stability. Short-term trade-offs arise whenever current inflationary pressure is high, but the financial system is experiencing stress. Medium-term trade-offs arise whenever current inflationary pressure is low, but risk is building up in the financial system.

FEDS Paper: Settlement Speed and Financial Stability(Revised)

Agostino Capponi and Jin-Wook ChangThis paper investigates how settlement speed affects financial stability in payment networks, accounting for netting benefits, liquidity costs, and counterparty risks. Faster settlement reduces crisis likelihood but amplifies crisis severity. The net welfare effect depends on network topology and proximity to default threshold points—settlement times at which the number of defaulting agents changes discontinuously.

FEDS Paper: Household Consumption Does Not Respond Directly to Interest Rates: Evidence From 10 Macroeconomic Shocks(Revised)

Edmund Crawley and William L. GamberWe estimate how much household spending responds directly to changes in interest rates. We develop a Bayesian procedure that uses the empirical impulse responses to macroeconomic shocks to discipline the consumer block of a HANK model. The procedure can be applied shock-by-shock or pooled jointly.

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