Bank of England announces new office space in Leeds
The Bank of England has secured a new long-term premises in Leeds, marking a major milestone in its commitment to build its presence in the region.
Central banks
Foreign Currency Reserves 2026 – Market Notice 21 September 2026
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Inflation narratives and risk premia
Theory suggests inflation risk premia are positive when supply shocks are expected to dominate demand shocks and negative otherwise. We measure these beliefs using demand and supply narratives derived from inflation news via Causality Extraction, which identifies causal relations between inflation and its drivers. Using narrative extracted from inflation news from the Financial Times for the Euro Area and the Wall Street Journal for the US, our key variable, NetDemand, measures the difference in articles attributing inflation to demand versus supply factors.
The impact of macroprudential policy fragmentation on corporate lending – evidence from a novel indicator
We construct a novel bank-level index that quantifies fragmentation in the capital buffer framework faced by euro area banks. Defined at quarterly frequency, it measures fragmentation by looking at the number of simultaneously active buffers, their geographical dispersion, and the frequency of buffer rate changes within the preceding year. The index is orthogonalised with respect to the level of capital requirements, bank size, and the financial cycle, thus controlling for these factors when measuring fragmentation as defined above.
Inflation narratives and risk premia
Theory suggests inflation risk premia are positive when supply shocks are expected to dominate demand shocks and negative otherwise. We measure these beliefs using demand and supply narratives derived from inflation news via Causality Extraction, which identifies causal relations between inflation and its drivers. Using narrative extracted from inflation news from the Financial Times for the Euro Area and the Wall Street Journal for the US, our key variable, NetDemand, measures the difference in articles attributing inflation to demand versus supply factors.
The impact of macroprudential policy fragmentation on corporate lending – evidence from a novel indicator
We construct a novel bank-level index that quantifies fragmentation in the capital buffer framework faced by euro area banks. Defined at quarterly frequency, it measures fragmentation by looking at the number of simultaneously active buffers, their geographical dispersion, and the frequency of buffer rate changes within the preceding year. The index is orthogonalised with respect to the level of capital requirements, bank size, and the financial cycle, thus controlling for these factors when measuring fragmentation as defined above.
The uneven journey of wholesale gas and electricity prices to consumer bills
The sharp rise in energy prices in the first half of 2026 evoked memories of the 2021-22 energy price shock. However, the 2026 energy price shock has so far been smaller in scale. This reflects more limited growth in wholesale gas prices and an increased share of electricity generated from renewables, which has dampened the pass-through of gas prices to wholesale electricity prices. The transmission of wholesale prices to retail prices has also changed, becoming somewhat faster for gas prices.
FEDS Paper: Optimal Pooling in Taylor Rule Estimation with Multiple-Horizon Forecast Panels
Edward Herbst and Karen PageMultiple-horizon forecast panels are increasingly used to infer perceived monetary policy rules, but inference depends on how coefficients are pooled across forecasters, dates, and horizons. We treat this pooling structure as the object of inference.
FEDS Paper: Premiums or Peril
Erik Heitfield, Mallick Hossain, and Katie MerrittUsing fine-grained data on 465,000 Florida home sales over twelve years and semiparametric machine learning methods, we examine how home prices respond to weather-related risk factors.
IFDP Paper: Estimating Yield Impacts of Treasury Demand and Supply Changes
Daniel Beltran and Canlin LiWe develop a rich demand system framework to quantify the yield effects of shifts in U.S. Treasury supply and demand. Our model captures time-varying holdings shares and estimates sectoral demand elasticities using instrumental variables.
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