The Bank, FCA and HM Treasury joint statement on Frontier AI models and cyber resilience
Statement from the Bank of England, Financial Conduct Authority and HM Treasury
Statement from the Bank of England, Financial Conduct Authority and HM Treasury
Tariffs have re-emerged as a key policy tool amid rising protectionism, renewed industrial policy activism and growing geopolitical fragmentation. This article analyses the conditions under which tariffs can encourage new greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) projects, with a focus on the manufacturing sector. The results indicate that tariffs can encourage “tariff-jumping” greenfield FDI projects aimed at serving local markets.
Euro area financial markets hold significant untapped potential: deeper cross-border integration would improve the allocation of savings, lower the cost of capital and strengthen capacity to finance investment and innovation. To assess how the integration of euro area equity markets has evolved over time, this box applies a structural gravity model, the workhorse of international trade analysis, to bilateral euro area equity holdings.
This box examines developments and drivers of dispersion in real GDP growth across euro area countries
The European Central Bank (ECB) defines its price stability target in terms of the HICP, the official measure of consumer price inflation in the euro area. Several changes have been implemented in the compilation of the HICP as of the January 2026 data release. Most importantly, the European Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose (ECOICOP) version 2 has been introduced for consumer goods and services. This box describes the main features of the new classification and outlines its impact on the HICP.
Sriya Anbil, Sebastian Infante, Zeynep SenyuzIn an ample-reserves framework, administered rates anchor money markets but suppress information from unsecured interbank trading. We recover that information by isolating the small interbank segment of the federal funds market.
Celso Brunetti, Jeffery H. Harris, Ioannis SpyridopoulosNo, in the mortgage market. Using confidential micro-level data combining mortgage contracts with credit and repayment records for 44 million loans spanning 5,000 bank mergers over nearly three decades, we find no changes to mortgage rates, approval rates, or delinquency rates. Local mortgage markets remain remarkably competitive despite consolidation, averaging over 100 active lenders in each county every post-merger quarter.
Eric EngstromIn January 2012, the Federal Reserve began publishing the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) "dot plot," revealing FOMC participants' projections for the federal funds rate. This paper documents a dual role for SEP projections in the formation of private interest-rate expectations. On one hand, SEP projections contain valuable information, achieving lower forecast errors than consensus surveys, VAR models, and several market-based measures at many horizons.
This article examines the drivers and macroeconomic implications of the recent significant expansion of the euro area labour force, which reached a record high of 173 million people in 2025. The increase reflects rising labour force participation across demographic groups and sustained net migration, with older, more educated and foreign workers accounting for much of the growth.
This box shows that older workers have contributed significantly to euro area employment growth in recent years, largely because they are retiring later. The share of retired individuals in the total population shows little sensitivity to the economic cycle, but has decreased steadily over the past two decades, with this decline having shifted more towards older age groups. The share of retirees is still falling among individuals in their early to mid-60s and appears likely to also do so among older age groups.