We propose a robust semi-parametric framework for persistent time-varying extreme tail behavior, including extreme Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The framework builds on Extreme Value Theory and uses a conditional version of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for peaks-over-threshold (POT) dynamics.
Kelsey O'FlahertyThe 2021-2022 inflation episode presented the first opportunity to examine inflation and price dispersion using U.S. scanner data in a high-inflation environment. Data from 50,000 outlets reveals that price changes across similar goods grew more dispersed in 2022 before falling again in 2023. This paper documents how price change dispersion interacts with households' product choices to generate substantial inflation heterogeneity.
The Bank's Court of Directors acts as a unitary board, setting the organisation's strategy and budget and taking key decisions on resourcing and appointments. Required to meet a minimum seven times per year, it has five executive members from the Bank and up to nine non-executive members.
Kabir Dasgupta, Brenden J. MasonWe exploit the spatiotemporal variation in US states’ interest rate ceilings on small-dollar loans to identify the effect of liquidity constraints on labor supply. Exogenously-capped interest rates lead to consumers being shut out of the market for cash loans. In response, labor supply increases by approximately 0.4 hours per week. We also find that the propensity to take personal leaves decreases.
Eirik Eylands Brandsaas, Daniel Garcia, Robert Kurtzman, Joseph Nichols, and Adelia ZytekData center investment in the U.S. has increased rapidly in the post-pandemic era, and plans for future investment have surged further.
Based on a series of novel experiments fielded within the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey, we provide evidence on the attitudes of euro area consumers towards a possible central bank digital currency (CBDC). We document substantial socio‑demographic heterogeneity in consumers’ awareness and willingness to adopt a CBDC. According to survey responses, a sizeable share of around 45% of households would be interested in potentially adopting this new asset.
Bence Bardóczy, Ettore Savoia, and Mateo Velásquez-GiraldoWe study the transmission and distributional effects of monetary policy in an environment where consumption-saving choices reflect both precautionary motives and life-cycle considerations.
We develop a framework underscoring the importance of incorporating natural capital into growth models and policy discussions, recognizing its role as a productive input and as a sourceof enjoyment. Both firms and the government face the trade-off between exploitation and conservation and can (but do not have to) engage in costly conservation. Firms optimally conserve natural capital to support future production but underinvest compared to the social optimum. Public conservation complements private action, shifting focus from current consumption to future growth.
We develop a framework underscoring the importance of incorporating natural capital into growth models and policy discussions, recognizing its role as a productive input and as a sourceof enjoyment. Both firms and the government face the trade-off between exploitation and conservation and can (but do not have to) engage in costly conservation. Firms optimally conserve natural capital to support future production but underinvest compared to the social optimum. Public conservation complements private action, shifting focus from current consumption to future growth.
Sergio VillalvazoThis paper studies the cross-sectional dimension of Fisher's debt-deflation mechanism that triggers endogenous Sudden Stop crises-i.e., episodes with large reversals in the current account. Analyzing microdata from Mexico, we show that this dimension has macroeconomic implications that operate via opposing effects. First, an amplifying effect by which households with high leverage fire-sale their assets during crises, increasing downward pressure on asset prices.
