Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Matteo Luciani, and Michele ModugnoIn economics, we need to forecast the present because reliable and comprehensive measures of the state of the economy are released with a substantial delay and considerable measurement error. Nowcasting exploits timely data to obtain early estimates of the state of the economy and updates these estimates continuously as new macroeconomic data are released.
Christine L. Dobridge, Patrick Kennedy, Paul Landefeld, Jacob MortensonWe study changes in tax positions for U.S. C corporations following passage of the 2017 tax legislation commonly known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). While existing research has focused primarily on publicly traded companies, data limitations have prevented more holistic analyses of the corporate sector. Using a representative sample of U.S.
Seung Kwak and Charles PressIn the context of leveraged buyouts (LBOs), this paper empirically studies the relation between pre-buyout credit market conditions and the post-buyout behavior of target companies, employing a supervisory dataset to overcome limited data availability for post-buyout target financial information. We propose an LBO-specific measure of (changes of) credit market conditions--the short-term (6-month) change of credit spreads leading up to buyout close.
Rhys Bidder, Nicolas Crouzet, Margaret M. Jacobson, Michael Siemer
Dario Caldara, Francesco Ferrante, Matteo Iacoviello, Andrea Prestipino, and Albert QueraltoWe use historical data and a calibrated model of the world economy to study how a synchronous monetary tightening can amplify cross-bor
Diego Comin, Robert Johnson, Callum JonesWe develop a multisector, open economy, New Keynesian framework to evaluate how potentially binding capacity constraints, and shocks to them, shape inflation. We show that binding constraints for domestic and foreign producers shift domestic and import price Phillips Curves up, similar to reduced-form markup shocks. Further, data on prices and quantities together identify whether constraints bind due to increased demand or reductions in capacity.
Rehim KilicBy using realized and survey-based expected exchange rate data, the paper presents five key findings regarding the Uncovered Interest rate Parity (UIP) and related puzzles in an Emerging Market (EM). First, Fama regressions, when not accounting for shifts in the UIP relationship, yield slopes that are statistically identical to one, irrespective of whether survey-based expected exchange rates or realized exchange rates are used.
Elliot Anenberg, Tess Scharlemann, Eileen van StraelenWe show that the strong negative effect of higher mortgage rates on cash-out refinancing reflects substitution into other borrowing products, not large changes in total new household borrowing.
Sebastian Infante, Kyungmin Kim, Anna Orlik, André F. Silva, Robert J. TetlowThis paper reviews the literature examining how the introduction of a retail CBDC would affect the banking sector and financial stability.
Ricardo Correa, Julian di Giovanni, Linda S. Goldberg, and Camelia MinoiuThis paper uses U.S. loan-level credit register data and the 2018–2019 Trade War to test for the effects of international trade uncertainty on domestic credit supply. We exploit cross-sectional heterogeneity in banks’ ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty and find that an increase in trade uncertainty is associated with a contraction in bank lending to all firms irrespective of the uncertainty that the firms face.
