Federal Reserve

Vihar Dalal, Daniel A. Dias, and Pinar UysalThis paper uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model—identified with an external monetary policy instrument and sign restrictions—to derive a measure of bank credit conditions from changes in bank lending standards. The model incorporates data on interest rates, bank credit, and survey-based measures of bank lending standards to identify monetary policy, credit demand, and credit supply shocks.

Saroj Bhattarai, Arpita Chatterjee, and Gautham UdupaWe estimate distributional implications of global food and oil price shocks by utilizing monthly panel data on consumption and income from India, and an IV strategy that removes variation coming from global demand shocks. While both shocks lead to stagflationary aggregate dynamics, they differ in terms of distributional consequences.

Cody KallenRising geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities have driven recent fragmentation of foreign direct investment (FDI).

Anushka Mitra and Aditi SinghThis paper examines which macroeconomic signals shape household expectations and finds that unemployment shocks play a more influential role than inflation shocks. Using daily data, we identify which announcements prompt households to revise their expectations. We construct two shock series—assuming households are either sophisticated or naive—based on the surprise components of announcements. Labor market news strongly influences both general economic sentiment and inflation expectations.