Financial institutions

Matthieu Bussière, Johanna Gilbert, and Olesya GrishchenkoUsing data on euro-area household inflation forecasts from the European Commission Consumer Survey, we show that households' perceptions of recent price changes play a key role in the formation of their inflation expectations. Such a relationship remains robust when we account for specific inflation components, household characteristics, and macroeconomic conditions, even though the perceptions-expectations relationship is heterogeneous across countries.

Using a recent and comprehensive data set covering nine of the most actively traded currencies on a monthly basis from 1995 to 2024, this paper explores the presence and potential drivers of herding behaviour in foreign exchange rate forecasts. The dataset features an average of 40–50 forecasters per currency, representing a broader range of currencies, a longer time frame, and a larger cross section of forecasters than is commonly found in the FX herding literature.

The public are being asked to give their views on a selection of wildlife, native to the UK, that will appear on the next series of banknotes in a consultation launched today.

Edmund Crawley, William Goodwin, Margaret M. Jacobson, and Fabian WinklerIn recent decades, an empirically estimated double-inertial rule fits the path of changes in the federal funds rate better than a standard inertial Taylor rule. Inertial Taylor rules aim to capture monetary policy gradualism via slow adjustments in the level of the policy rate.