Financial institutions

We find that whether US import tariffs have supply-side effects or demand-side effects on US manufacturing sectors depends on where the affected sectors are located in the US production network. Using local projections in a panel of US manufacturing sectors, we find that US import tariffs —including the 2018-19 tariff hikes— led to sectoral output contractions via two different channels: (1) Tariff increases act as negative supply shifters for sectors that use goods from tariff-facing sectors as input in production and thus face rising input costs.

This box summarises the main findings from recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 76 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which mainly took place between 22 June and 1 July 2026, activity continued to grow moderately in the second quarter with similar momentum expected for the third quarter. While the war in the Middle East was weighing on consumer spending somewhat, the overall impact on activity seemed limited as some firms benefited from less competition and precautionary stockbuilding.

The proposals would provide more detail on the PRA’s approach to Part VIII transactions, helping firms plan amalgamations and transfers more efficiently.

Sai Ma, Viktors Stebunovs, Judit TemesvaryWe develop a Transmission Growth-at-Risk (TGaR) framework that incorporates foreign financial vulnerabilities as predictors of U.S. downside growth risk. We distinguish financial conditions, which measure current tightness in credit markets, from financial vulnerabilities, which measure structural fragilities that can amplify shocks.