Financial institutions

FEDS Paper: Linear Factor Models and the Estimation of Expected Returns

Cisil Sarisoy, Peter de Goeij, and Bas J.M. WerkerThis paper analyzes the properties of expected return estimators on individual assets implied by the linear factor models of asset pricing, i.e., the product of β and λ. We provide the asymptotic properties of factor-model-based expected return estimators, which yield the standard errors for risk premium estimators for individual assets. We show that using factor-model-based risk premium estimates leads to sizable precision gains compared to using historical averages.

Consumer participation in the credit market during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond

This paper analyses the consumer’s decision to apply for credit and the probability of the credit being accepted in the euro area during a period characterized by the unprecedented concomitance of events and changing borrowing conditions linked to the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We use data between 2020Q1 and 2023Q2 from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. We find that the credit demand is highest when the first lockdown ends and drops when supportive monetary compensation schemes are implemented.

Consumer participation in the credit market during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond

This paper analyses the consumer’s decision to apply for credit and the probability of the credit being accepted in the euro area during a period characterized by the unprecedented concomitance of events and changing borrowing conditions linked to the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We use data between 2020Q1 and 2023Q2 from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. We find that the credit demand is highest when the first lockdown ends and drops when supportive monetary compensation schemes are implemented.

FEDS Paper: Parental Employment at the Onset of the Pandemic: Effects of Lockdowns and Government Policies

Kabir Dasgupta, Linda Kirkpatrick, and Alexander PlumThe COVID-19 pandemic had disproportionate impacts on women’s employment, especially for mothers with school-age and younger children. However, the impacts likely varied depending on the type of policy response adopted by various governments. New Zealand presents a unique policy setting in which one of the strictest lockdown restrictions was combined with a generous wage subsidy scheme to secure employment.

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