Financial institutions

A SPOT in the dark: using AI to assess financial stability risks

07/29/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

Financial stability risks consist of two distinct components: vulnerabilities and possible trigger events. While there has been considerable progress regarding the measurement of vulnerabilities, the assessment of possible trigger events remains largely qualitative. To fill this gap, we employ Large Language Models to extract information about the Severity and Probability Of potential Trigger events (SPOT) from a large dataset of financial news articles over the period2005 – 2026.

The Paris Agreement ten years later: Navigating climate uncertainty and tipping points

07/28/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

The climate crisis is an urgent, human-driven systemic challenge whose impacts are unfolding through increasingly frequent and severe extreme events. Although the 2015 Paris Agreement advanced global climate governance, implementation remains insufficient to limit warming to well below 2 °C and pursue 1.5 °C. Accelerating risks, interacting crises and potential tipping points suggest that climate change could become unmanageable if current GHGs emissions trajectories persist. This paper makes three contributions.

Adoption and investment in AI across the euro area. Insights from harmonised firm-level data

07/28/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper explores the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies among euro area firms, using harmonised firm-level data from two dedicated modules of the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) conducted in June and December 2025. Based on responses from around 6,000 firms across 12 euro area countries, the study examines AI adoption rates, drivers, barriers and economic implications. The findings suggest that AI diffusion among euro area firms is progressing rapidly but unevenly, with significant variation across countries and firm characteristics.

The Paris Agreement ten years later: Navigating climate uncertainty and tipping points

07/28/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

The climate crisis is an urgent, human-driven systemic challenge whose impacts are unfolding through increasingly frequent and severe extreme events. Although the 2015 Paris Agreement advanced global climate governance, implementation remains insufficient to limit warming to well below 2 °C and pursue 1.5 °C. Accelerating risks, interacting crises and potential tipping points suggest that climate change could become unmanageable if current GHGs emissions trajectories persist. This paper makes three contributions.

The bank collateral channel of monetary policy: evidence from securities losses

07/28/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

Monetary policy tightening generates valuation losses on banks’ securities portfolios, reducing the collateral available for interbank borrowing. Using detailed euro area data, we show that banks with larger securities losses during the 2022-23 monetary policy tightening cycle obtained less interbank funding and reduced lending to firms, even when losses did not affect regulatory capital. These effects were strongest for banks with limited liquidity buffers and high collateral utilisation.

Central banks, debt managers, and specialness in the Bund repo market

07/27/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

Elevated repo rate specialness for German government bonds in 2016–17, and particularly in 2022-23, has often been linked to the absorption of these securities by the ECB’s asset purchase programmes. We provide the first evidence on how the debt management office mitigates these effects by jointly analyzing daily secondary-market trades and repo operations of the Deutsche Finanzagentur (DFA) alongside Eurosystem transactions in Bunds from 2015–2024.

The effects of a large energy price shock on bank credit

07/27/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This study investigates the effect of the large shock to energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on bank credit to firms. To isolate the causal effect of the shock, it compares bank lending to high-energy-intensive firms to that of similar low-energy-intensive firms. Following the shock, bank credit to high-energy-intensive firms persistently declined, while their interest rates on new loans rose and other loan terms tightened.

Central banks, debt managers, and specialness in the Bund repo market

07/27/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

Elevated repo rate specialness for German government bonds in 2016–17, and particularly in 2022-23, has often been linked to the absorption of these securities by the ECB’s asset purchase programmes. We provide the first evidence on how the debt management office mitigates these effects by jointly analyzing daily secondary-market trades and repo operations of the Deutsche Finanzagentur (DFA) alongside Eurosystem transactions in Bunds from 2015–2024.

The effects of a large energy price shock on bank credit

07/27/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This study investigates the effect of the large shock to energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on bank credit to firms. To isolate the causal effect of the shock, it compares bank lending to high-energy-intensive firms to that of similar low-energy-intensive firms. Following the shock, bank credit to high-energy-intensive firms persistently declined, while their interest rates on new loans rose and other loan terms tightened.

Import tariff transmission in a production network

07/24/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

We find that whether US import tariffs have supply-side effects or demand-side effects on US manufacturing sectors depends on where the affected sectors are located in the US production network. Using local projections in a panel of US manufacturing sectors, we find that US import tariffs —including the 2018-19 tariff hikes— led to sectoral output contractions via two different channels: (1) Tariff increases act as negative supply shifters for sectors that use goods from tariff-facing sectors as input in production and thus face rising input costs.

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