Financial institutions

Hidden in the aggregate: the cyclicality of EU labour force participation

08/20/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

We estimate the cyclical response of labour force participation to growth shocks across EU regions. We use a shift-share instrumental variable approach and local projections on EU Labour Force Survey microdata covering 15 countries and 114 regions over 2000–2020. The aggregate labour force participation rate is remarkably resilient, a clear contrast to the highly cyclical participation rate documented for the U.S. However, this resilience masks pronounced demographic heterogeneity.

Banks’ funding structures and pass-through in the euro area

08/20/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper investigates the interest rate pass-through of monetary policy in the euro area by focusing on the role of banks’ funding structures. We estimate the interest rate pass-through for loans to non-financial corporations using bank-level balance sheet data. In doing so, we interact the response of lending rates with characteristics of the funding structure, and show that banks that rely more on bond issuance than on the money market tend to be less responsive to policy changes.

Hidden in the aggregate: the cyclicality of EU labour force participation

08/20/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

We estimate the cyclical response of labour force participation to growth shocks across EU regions. We use a shift-share instrumental variable approach and local projections on EU Labour Force Survey microdata covering 15 countries and 114 regions over 2000–2020. The aggregate labour force participation rate is remarkably resilient, a clear contrast to the highly cyclical participation rate documented for the U.S. However, this resilience masks pronounced demographic heterogeneity.

Domestic and cyclical inflation in the euro area

08/20/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

The ECB’s inflation target is formulated in terms of headline inflation. However, domestically determined inflation features prominently in the monetary policy transmission mechanism and in gauging underlying inflation, making it important to assess it regularly. The ECB monitors various proxies for domestically determined inflation, including: (i) “domestic inflation”, which aggregates inflation items with a low import share; and (ii) “Supercore” inflation, which aggregates inflation items found to be sensitive to the aggregate business cycle.

IFDP Paper: Occupational Complexity, Capital-Skill Complementarity, and the Evolution of U.S. Wage Inequality: A Quantitative Analysis

08/14/2026 Federal Reserve Central banks

Colin Caines, Florian Hoffmann, Gueorgui KambourovWe document a strong, positive relationship between occupational problem complexity, measured from US data on problem-solving requirements, and occupational wage growth since 1980. In contrast, employment shifts toward more complex occupations have been modest, suggesting a race between the demand for and supply of complex skills.

The use of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy instruments and its monetary policy implementation framework in 2024 and 2025

08/11/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

The Eurosystem implements its monetary policy through a set of monetary policy instruments (MPIs). This report reviews the main changes in the use of MPIs and the associated developments in the Eurosystem’s monetary policy implementation framework over 2024-25. Inflation returned to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2%, supported by the smooth transmission of monetary policy. After completing the hiking cycle of 2022 and 2023, the ECB began reducing its key interest rates in June 2024. This easing phase occurred alongside further balance sheet normalisation.

Can structural reforms unleash private investment?

08/11/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper examines the impact of labour and product market reforms on private investment across 26 advanced economies from 1975 to 2020. To this end, we combine a narrative database on major structural reforms with local projections and augmented inverse probability weighting. We find that a major labour market reform typically increases the level of real private investment by 5% cumulatively within six years, while a major product market reform yields an impact of 3%.

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