This paper studies how Treasury market dynamics depend on adjustments to the central bank balance sheet. We introduce a dynamic model of Treasury bonds with traditional and shadow banks. In the model, both Treasury and repo market disruptions arise as a joint consequence of three frictions: (i) balance sheet costs,(ii) intraday reserves requirements, and (iii) imperfect substitutability between repo and bank deposits.
Statistical Notices update the definitions and guidance contained in the Banking Statistics Yellow Folder
We analyze the international dimension of repo markets using novel euro area regulatory microdata. Our findings highlight the deep integration of funding markets across the Atlantic and the US dollar’s outsized role.
We provide novel evidence on the supply-side transmission of monetary policy through a floating-rate channel. After a rate hike, firms with floating-rate loans keep prices elevated to offset higher borrowing costs, thereby reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Using monthly data on product-level prices, industry-level inflation rates and the euro-area credit register from 2021 to 2023, we find that the short-run impact of monetary tightening on inflation is 50% smaller when firms rely on floating-rate loans.
In December 2023 the Bank’s Court of Directors commissioned its Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) to conduct an evaluation of whether the Bank uses horizon scanning effectively to inform decision-making and support its mission.
Ufuk Akcigit, Harun Alp, Jeremy Pearce, and Marta PratoThis paper explores the symbiotic relationship between transformative entrepreneurs and inventors, which is crucial for economic growth. We utilize microdata from Denmark to demonstrate that while the relationship between IQ and general entrepreneurship tends to be negative, it is strongly positive among transformative entrepreneurs.
The FMI Annual Report sets out how the Bank has exercised its responsibilities in respect of supervising financial market infrastructures since the last report.
This study involves tasking ChatGPT with classifying an “activity sentiment score” based on PMI news releases. It explores the predictive power of this score for euro area GDP nowcasting. We find that the PMI text scores enhance GDP nowcasts beyond what is embedded in ECB/Eurosystem Staff projections and Eurostat’s first GDP estimate. The ChatGPT-derived activity score retains its significance in regressions that also include the composite output PMI diffusion index.
R. Matthew Darst, Ehraz Refayet, and Alexandros VardoulakisWe examine how macroprudential capital requirements interact with competition between banks and non-banks to shape lending standards. Banks have private information and benefit from deposit insurance, while non-banks lack such advantages but are less regulated.
Leland D. Crane, Akhil Karra, and Paul E. SotoWe evaluate the ability of large language models (LLMs) to estimate historical macroeconomic variables and data release dates. We find that LLMs have precise knowledge of some recent statistics, but performance degrades as we go farther back in history.
