Hyunseung Oh, Choongryul Yang, Chamna YoonUsing a novel data set of U.S. residential land developments, we document that the average time to develop residential properties—which includes both the time spent preparing land infrastructures and construction—is about three years, consistent with sizable lags in housing investment projects.
The Money Markets Committee is a forum for market participants and authorities to discuss the UK unsecured deposits and funding market and securities lending and repo markets.
We develop a two-country DSGE model with financial frictions to study the transition from a steady-state without CBDC to one in which the home country issues a CBDC. The CBDC provides households with a liquid, convenient and storage-cost free means of payments which reduces the market power of banks on deposits. In the steady-state CBDC unambiguously improves welfare without disintermediating the banking sector. But macroeconomic volatility in the transition period to the new steady-state increases for plausible values of the latter.
This paper studies how demographics affect aggregate labor market power, the urban wage premium and the spatial concentration of population. I develop a quantitative spatial model in which labor market competitiveness depends on the demographic composition of the local workforce. Using highly disaggregated administrative data from Germany, I find that firms have more labor market power over older workers: The labor supply elasticity decreases from more than 2 to 1 from age 20 to 64.
This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The pass-through is stronger and more persistent when gas prices are driven by aggregate demand or supply pressures, while inventory shocks have a weaker impact.
Martin Bodenstein and Mikaël ScaramucciWe assess the impacts from physical hazards (or severe weather events) on economic activity in a panel of 98 countries using local projection methods. Proxying the strength of an event by the monetary damages it caused, we find severe weather events to reduce the level of GDP. For most events in the EM-DAT data set the effects are small.
Statistical Notices update the definitions and guidance contained in the Banking Statistics Yellow Folder
We study the redistributive effects of surprise inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are unaware of nominal-debt erosion. Once they receive information on the debt-erosion channel, households view nominal debt more positively and increase estimates of their own real net wealth.
Policymakers around the world are encouraging the local production of key inputs to reduce risks from excessive dependencies on foreign suppliers. We analyse the macroeconomic effects of supply chain reorientation through localisation policies, using a global dynamic general equilibrium model. We proxy non-tariff measures, such as the stricter enforcement of regulatory standards, which reduce import quantity but do not directly alter costs and prices.
Kenneth P. BrevoortConcerns have lingered since the 2007 subprime crisis that government housing policies promote risky mortgage lending. The first peer-reviewed evidence of a causal effect was published by the Review of Financial Studies in a paper (Saadi, 2020) linking the crisis to changes in the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) in 1995. A review of that paper, however, shows that it misrepresents the policy changes as having taken effect in mid-1998, 2.5 years after they were implemented.
