FEDS Paper: Capturing Heterogeneity: Machine Learning Approaches to Implied Volatility Forecasting

Hyung Joo Kim and Dong Hwan OhDespite documented heterogeneity in volatility dynamics across the option surface, standard implied volatility forecasting models apply homogeneous parameters throughout. We introduce a machine-learning framework that uses regression trees to partition the surface along both moneyness and maturity dimensions, identifying data-driven regions where distinct forecasting models perform best.

Barriers to a European Banking Union

We quantify barriers to cross-border bank lending to firms within the euro area and their consequences for credit allocation and output. Using loan-level data from the European credit registry (AnaCredit) and group structures (RIAD),we estimate barriers to relationship formation, loan pricing, and banks’ branching decisions at the country-pair level. We find that barriers to cross-border relationships between banks and firms and cross-border bank entry are large while wedges on interest rates and loan quantities are comparatively small.

Measuring geoeconomic tension: a large-language-model approach for the euro area

We construct an index of geopolitical and geoeconomic tension for the euro area using Large-Language Models (LLMs) that prompt a large dataset of European, local-language newspaper articles. The resulting LLM Geoeconomic and Geopolitical Tension (LGPT) index and its subindices seek to provide an accurate narrative of tensions and their sources over the past quarter century. The multilingual LLM approach allows for a separation between geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions and for granularity in the identification of the source of such tensions including trade, energy and finance.

Samaras escalates row with PM as ELAS tries to build credibility

Over recent weeks, pressure on Maximos has begun to converge from multiple directions: Antonis Samaras has escalated his personal confrontation with Kyriakos Mitsotakis over the Predator surveillance scandal and Alexis Tsipras’s new party, the Greek Left Alliance (ELAS), is simultaneously attacking the government’s economic narrative and grappling with the challenge of presenting a credible, fully costed alternative.

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