FEDS Paper: Hysteresis and the Role of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from U.S. States(Revised)

Hie Joo Ahn and Yunjong EoThis paper empirically investigates the sources of hysteresis, emphasizing the role of downward nominal wage rigidity using U.S. state-level payroll employment growth. U.S. states exhibit heterogeneous recoveries, with L-shaped and U-shaped recessions corresponding to persistent hysteresis and full recovery. L-shaped recessions are importantly driven by demand shocks and reinforced by downward nominal wage rigidity, which prolongs employment losses by raising real wages and deepening downturns.

Teenagers are preparing for the jobs of 25 years ago – and schools are missing the AI revolution

Matej Kastelic/ShutterstockThe government has recently released its national youth strategy, which promises better career advice for young people in England. It’s sorely needed: for teenagers today, the future of work probably feels more like a moving target than a destination. Barely three years after ChatGPT went mainstream, the labour market has already shifted under young people’s feet.

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