FEDS Paper: Alternative Scenarios at the Federal Reserve from 1968 to 2020: Data, Interpretation, and Evaluation

Edward Herbst, Scott Konzem, and Cristina ScofieldWe comprehensively document 1,265 Federal Reserve staff alternative scenarios presented to the Federal Open Market Committee in publicly released materials from 1968 to 2020. Scenarios grew in frequency and sophistication, typically spanning a range of outcomes around the baseline.

FEDS Paper: Skill and Efficiency in the U.S. Mutual Fund Industry

Dong Hwan Oh and Andrew J. PattonWe propose a new measure of mutual fund manager ability: "efficiency" is the ability to accrue the risk premium associated with a risk factor. The familiar abnormal return, or alpha, is shown to be the sum of two distinct measures of ability: "aggregate efficiency" which is the beta-weighted sum of the fund's (in)efficiencies across risk factors, and "skill," the component that is unrelated to factor exposures. Using a panel of U.S.

When ICE ramped up enforcement, US-born workers didn’t see any economic gains

Despite the Trump administration's immigration crackdown, U.S.-born workers aren't seeing more jobs or higher wages, including in sectors with a high share of immigrant labor. AP Photo/Richard VogelPresident Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to strengthen the labor market. His immigration platform – including a pledge to conduct the largest deportation campaign in U.S.

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