FEDS Paper: Hysteresis and the Role of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from U.S. States(Revised)
Hie Joo Ahn and Yunjong EoThis paper empirically investigates the sources of hysteresis, emphasizing the role of downward nominal wage rigidity using U.S. state-level payroll employment growth. U.S. states exhibit heterogeneous recoveries, with L-shaped and U-shaped recessions corresponding to persistent hysteresis and full recovery. L-shaped recessions are importantly driven by demand shocks and reinforced by downward nominal wage rigidity, which prolongs employment losses by raising real wages and deepening downturns.