Ricardo's threads | Nothing contributes so much to the prosperity and happiness of a country as high profits

Beat the heat, the role of heat waves and droughts in regional EU economies

06/17/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

Europe is increasingly exposed to heat waves and droughts, but their short-term economic effects across sectors remain hard to predict. This study develops climate-augmented models to predict real growth in per capita value added across 1,117 EU regions (2002–2022), by combining economic indicators with high-frequency climate data. When using machine learning (ML, Random Forest and XGBoost), climate variables improve predictions in agriculture, while gains for other sectors are limited and do not outperform economic models.

Government scrambles to ease household pressure as PM targets PASOK and ELAS for “freebie politics”

06/17/2026 Macropolis European Union

The government is stepping up its efforts to demonstrate that it is easing the financial burden on Greek households, as the second part of the latest ALCO poll painted a stark picture of economic insecurity.

Soaring US beef prices likely to rise further thanks to trade tensions and disease outbreaks

06/16/2026 The Conversation USA

The U.S.-Mexico beef market has taken a massive hit from the screwworm parasite, which has spread from Mexico to Texas and New Mexico. AP Photo/Isabel Mateos, fileIt’s summer grilling season, but for many Americans, surging prices mean beef is no longer what’s for dinner.

European Union Lawmakers Approve Much-Delayed Trade Deal With U.S.

06/16/2026 New York Times USA

After nearly a year of wrangling, the deal the European Union struck with President Trump in Turnberry, Scotland, is headed for final approval.

The Iran War Permanently Altered the Global Economy

06/16/2026 New York Times USA

The global order has been altered, and economies are unlikely to simply pick up where they left off before the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran.

Overnight trains: why sleeping all the way to your holiday destination is a growing (and green) option

06/16/2026 The Conversation UK

More sleeper trains are being launched in 2026. Madhourse/ShutterstockThey may not have the luxurious cabins and glamorous restaurant service of the famous Orient Express, but new European sleeper train routes are offering tourists an alternative to short-haul flights and busy airports.

How bond markets have become one of the most powerful forces in modern politics

06/16/2026 The Conversation UK

Darryl Brooks/ShutterstockTo stay in the top job, a British prime minister has to try and keep certain groups happy. MPs, party members and donors do not like to be ignored.

Nor do the bond markets. And often it feels like they matter the most.

Car sales remain strong, rising by 3.3% YoY up to May

06/16/2026 Macropolis European Union

Vehicles going into circulation for the first time had gains of 4 percent year-on-year (YoY) in May, after a marginal rise of 0.6 percent in April, according to Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) data released on Tuesday.

Innovation without borders? The geography of technological diffusion

06/16/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

How well does innovation diffuse across geographic boundaries? To shed light on this question, we present a large-scale field experiment involving 3,300 firms across twelve European Union countries. We elicit firms’ perceptions of the share of similar firms in their own country that had invested in artificial intelligence (AI), as well as the corresponding share among similar firms in Germany, France, and Italy. We randomly provide half of the sample with accurate information about both domestic and foreign AI investment.

Effectiveness of supervisory activities in mitigating banks’ commercial real estate risk

06/16/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

We assess the effectiveness of supervisory activities in mitigating credit risk stemming from banks’ commercial real estate portfolios. We analyse two activity types deployed by European banking supervisors: (a) on-site inspections, which assess in depth banks’ risk-taking and internal controls, but can only be selectively applied, and (b) off-site targeted reviews, which survey risk management practices across institutions, are less intrusive but are applied more widely.

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