Arun Gupta, Horacio Sapriza, and Vladimir YankovWe examine the firm-level and aggregate effects of the collateral channel using administrative bank-firm-loan level data. We introduce novel instrumental variables related to the efficiency of federal district bankruptcy courts and show their importance as predictors of collateral use and banks' expected losses given default across collateral types.

Dean Clarke/ShutterstockUK inflation has dropped to 3.6% but it remains well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. Beyond broader global uncertainties, there are also factors within our own homes that are quietly sustaining this stubborn issue. Namely, automatic annual price uplifts in everyday contracts for things like mobile phones and utilities.

This article expands the 2025 EU-wide stress test by incorporating a system-wide perspective to capture contagion risks across investment funds and insurance corporations alongside the banking sector. It examines potential short-term contagion effects under the EBA’s adverse scenario as financial institutions adjust their balance sheets in response to stress. These adjustments would result in additional average CET1 ratio depletion of 29 basis points, increasing first-round effects by 12%.

Stress test simulations can enhance our understanding of the interplay between bank actions, the real economy and macroprudential buffers. Leveraging BEAST, the ECB’s workhorse top-down stress test model, this article explores impacts stemming from bank behavioural reactions by simulating them under the adverse scenario of the 2025 EU-wide stress test. The article shows that allowing banks to adjust their balance sheets only improves their capital ratios to a minor extent compared with simulations where they are assumed to keep their balance sheets constant.