Private Data, Public Danger? How the Shutdown Poses Risks to the Entire Economy

As the government shutdown drags on, official economic data has slowed to a crawl, leaving policymakers, markets, and citizens increasingly reliant on private-sector numbers. That’s a problem.
If the 2008 financial crisis proved anything, it’s that economic stability is not a given but a fragile construct – one that can collapse at warp speed when trust, transparency, and accountability erode.

Reality has a way of reminding us if we forget.

The unraveling of workplace protections for delivery drivers: A tale of 2 workplace models

American households have become dependent on Amazon.

The numbers say it all: In 2024, 83% of U.S. households received deliveries from Amazon, representing over 1 million packages delivered each day and 9 billion individual items delivered same-day or next-day every year. In remarkably short order, the company has transformed from an online bookseller into a juggernaut that has reshaped retailing. But its impact isn’t limited to how we shop.

The unraveling of workplace protections for delivery drivers: A tale of 2 workplace models

American households have become dependent on Amazon.

The numbers say it all: In 2024, 83% of U.S. households received deliveries from Amazon, representing over 1 million packages delivered each day and 9 billion individual items delivered same-day or next-day every year. In remarkably short order, the company has transformed from an online bookseller into a juggernaut that has reshaped retailing. But its impact isn’t limited to how we shop.

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the aftermath of an inflationary shock

This paper studies the effect of alternative monetary policy responses and the implementation of different fiscal policy measures to an inflationary shock in a monetary union, through the lens of a global DSGE model calibrated to the euro area. We find that a more aggressive monetary policy response mitigates the inflation surge, but has a detrimental impact on economic activity that imposes a stronger increase of public debt, reducing the fiscal policy space.

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the aftermath of an inflationary shock

This paper studies the effect of alternative monetary policy responses and the implementation of different fiscal policy measures to an inflationary shock in a monetary union, through the lens of a global DSGE model calibrated to the euro area. We find that a more aggressive monetary policy response mitigates the inflation surge, but has a detrimental impact on economic activity that imposes a stronger increase of public debt, reducing the fiscal policy space.

Monetary policy transmission: a reference guide through ESCB models and empirical benchmarks

This paper serves as a reference guide on the effects of “standard” monetary policy shocks on output and prices, based on harmonised simulation exercises conducted across models of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), meta-analysis of existing empirical literature for the euro area, and selected works on heterogeneity and non-linearities in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by empirical models.

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