Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to model it accurately. This paper introduces a novel suite of Bayesian VAR models for euro area HICP energy inflation, which adopts a granular, bottom-up approach – disaggregating energy into subcomponents, such as fuels, gas, and electricity. The suite incorporates key features for energy prices: stochastic volatility, outlier correction, high-frequency indicators, and pre-tax price modelling.

Australia’s dairy industry is in the middle of a crisis, fuelled by an almost perfect storm of challenges.

Climate change and extreme weather have been battering farmlands and impacting animal productivity, creating mounting financial strains and mental health struggles for many farmers.

Two days of trade talks resulted in what leaders called a framework agreement meant to solidify terms of a truce that the superpowers reached in Geneva last month.

Whenever the UK government decides to spend public money on a new project, it needs to weigh up the costs against the value of the benefits it hopes to achieve. And it’s rarely a simple calculation.

This is why Chancellor Rachel Reeves is changing the Treasury’s “green book” of rules which dictate how investment plans are made. Those rules, and the calculations they support, do not always work.