Herding in the foreign exchange market

Using a recent and comprehensive data set covering nine of the most actively traded currencies on a monthly basis from 1995 to 2024, this paper explores the presence and potential drivers of herding behaviour in foreign exchange rate forecasts. The dataset features an average of 40–50 forecasters per currency, representing a broader range of currencies, a longer time frame, and a larger cross section of forecasters than is commonly found in the FX herding literature.

Fiscal policy transmission through production networks with heterogeneous households

We study how sector-specific fiscal policy propagates in an economy with heterogeneous households and production networks. We develop a multisector New Keynesian model in which input-output linkages interact with differences in households’ marginal propensities to consume (MPCs). We show that fiscal multipliers depend on sectors’ positions in the production network, as network linkages reallocate income across households with heterogeneous consumption responses.

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