What analysts hear and why it matters for monetary policy

We introduce a novel measure of how European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy is interpreted by analysts at major investment banks. We construct a “policy interpretation shock” based on the language used in analysts’ reports covering monetary policy decisions by the ECB’s Governing Council (GovC). The main identifying assumption is that changes in the way analysts report on policy communication by the GovC—that is, the change in the policy tone from the preview report to the recap report—reflect unexpected information revealed by the policy event.

The heterogeneous bank lending channel of monetary policy

How does heterogeneity in banks’ interest-rate risk exposure shape monetary policy transmission? We develop a quantitative macroeconomic model of heterogeneous banks to answer this question. We establish an irrelevance result: differences in interest-rate risk exposure between fixed- and variable-rate banking systems matter for transmission only when bank solvency concerns become relevant. Calibrating the model to the euro area, we show that idiosyncratic default risk pushes a substantial share of banks toward the solvency threshold, making heterogeneity quantitatively important.

The heterogeneous bank lending channel of monetary policy

How does heterogeneity in banks’ interest-rate risk exposure shape monetary policy transmission? We develop a quantitative macroeconomic model of heterogeneous banks to answer this question. We establish an irrelevance result: differences in interest-rate risk exposure between fixed- and variable-rate banking systems matter for transmission only when bank solvency concerns become relevant. Calibrating the model to the euro area, we show that idiosyncratic default risk pushes a substantial share of banks toward the solvency threshold, making heterogeneity quantitatively important.

What analysts hear and why it matters for monetary policy

We introduce a novel measure of how European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy is interpreted by analysts at major investment banks. We construct a “policy interpretation shock” based on the language used in analysts’ reports covering monetary policy decisions by the ECB’s Governing Council (GovC). The main identifying assumption is that changes in the way analysts report on policy communication by the GovC—that is, the change in the policy tone from the preview report to the recap report—reflect unexpected information revealed by the policy event.

Remembering Perry Mehrling

It is with deepest sadness and regret that we learned of the passing of Dr. Perry Mehrling. Dr. Mehrling played a vital role in INET and its Young Scholar Initiative (YSI) for many years. We were looking forward with hopeful anticipation to working with him far into the future. Alas, it was not to be. Over the next few months, INET and YSI will be organizing a series of tributes to Dr. Mehrling. In the meantime, we gratefully reprint with permission the warm and generous appreciation of our long time colleague just published by our friends at the History of Economics Society.

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