Ricardo's threads | Nothing contributes so much to the prosperity and happiness of a country as high profits

FEDS Paper: Linear and Nonlinear Econometric Models versus Machine-Learning Models: Evidence from Realized-Volatility Forecasting(Revised)

09/02/2026 Federal Reserve Central banks

Rehim KilicThis paper examines which representations of persistence and nonlinearity are most useful for forecasting realized volatility and whether machine learning adds value beyond econometric models designed for long memory and regime dependence. We compare HAR, ARFIMA, threshold HAR, smooth-transition HAR, and Markov-switching HAR with XGBoost and several neural-network models for the S&P 500 and 40 U.S. equities.

Andy Burnham announces thousands of new homes, but is the government much closer to its target?

09/02/2026 The Conversation UK

Andy Burnham recently announced 70,000 new homes Fred Duval / ShutterstockPrime Minister Andy Burnham has promised the largest council house building programme since the immediate post-war period, pledging more than £9 billion of investment.

The lesson Canada’s prime minister learned from Brexit is helping in its trade rift with US

09/02/2026 The Conversation UK

The trade conflict between Canada and the United States is heating up and has moved beyond rhetoric. After the latest round of negotiations failed, the US imposed 50% tariffs on around C$27.6 billion (£14.68 billion) of Canadian goods on August 22. Canada is responding swiftly with dollar-for-dollar retaliation to take effect on September 8.

Labor votes: Discontent will accompany blue‑collar voters to the polls in the midterms

09/02/2026 The Conversation USA

President Donald Trump greets a retired UAW autoworker while speaking at the General Motors Milford Proving Ground on July 27, 2026, in Milford, Mich.

At G20 Meeting, Scott Bessent Accuses China of Flooding the World With Cheap Exports

09/01/2026 New York Times USA

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused China for flooding the world with its cheap exports.

FEDS Paper: Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy

09/01/2026 Federal Reserve Central banks

Tobias Adrian, Domenico Giannone, Matteo Luciani, and Mike WestCentral banks monitor macroeconomic risk through two traditions: scenario analysis, regularly used since the mid-1990s, and distributional forecasting, practiced since the late 1960s. The two are complementary but separate: scenarios provide narratives without probabilities, while predictive distributions provide probabilities with limited economic interpretation.

At G20 Summit, Scott Bessent Says U.S. Has Support for Economic War Against Iran

09/01/2026 New York Times USA

The Treasury secretary is also facing pushback on the Trump administration’s trade policies at the global gathering.

Why you should live your life like an accountant – and how you probably already do

09/01/2026 The Conversation UK

Accountants are often portrayed sitting at a desk studying financial reports. alphaspirit.it / ShutterstockWhen asked to think about accounting, most people imagine numbers, calculators, spreadsheets and offices populated by smart-suited bean counters hunched over reports. You most certainly think about money.

White House ballroom cleared for now, but question remains: Can president legally use donations to build it?

09/01/2026 The Conversation USA

The Supreme Court said construction of a White House ballroom can continue. AP Photo/J.

The Macroeconomic Roots of the Collapse of the Political Center in the US

09/01/2026 Ineteconomics Analysis

The collapse of America's political center isn't a mystery. What looks like a sudden political crisis is really the result of an economy that's been abandoning ordinary workers for decades.

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