Why surging oil prices are a shock for the global economy – but not yet a crisis

Global oil markets have reacted swiftly to escalating tensions in the Middle East as the United States and Israel continue their assault on Iran.

After oil tanker traffic through a key chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, stopped,
the benchmark oil price, Brent crude, jumped about 6% to over US$77 a barrel. It initially spiked as high as US$82, its highest level since January 2025.

Does ‘free’ shipping really exist? An expert shares the marketing tricks you need to know

Claudio Schwarz/UnsplashYou’re scrolling through an online retailer, like Amazon, Shein or eBay, and spot a shirt on sale for $40. You add it to your cart, but at checkout, a $10 shipping fee suddenly appears. Frustrated, you close the tab.

But what if that same shirt was priced at $50 with “free” shipping? The likelihood that you would have bought it without a second thought is much higher.

What regional data tell us about the euro area Phillips curve

Using regional data for 11 euro area countries from 1999 to 2023, instead of country-level data, we find that inflation still responds to economic slack, but this relationship is more modest and largely shaped by inflation expectations. This implies that traditional demand-side central bank policies may have limited direct effects on inflation, highlighting that anchoring expectations is essential for effective monetary policy transmission.

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