Trump’s Demand to Trading Partners: Pledge Money or Get Higher Tariffs
President Trump is using an “Art of the Deal” approach to get other nations to hand over cash to lower their tariffs.
For America’s 35M small businesses, tariff uncertainty hits especially hard
Imagine it’s April 2025 and you’re the owner of a small but fast-growing e-commerce business. Historically, you’ve sourced products from China, but the president just announced tariffs of 145% on these goods. Do you set up operations in Thailand – requiring new investment and a lot of work – or wait until there’s more clarity on trade? What if waiting too long means you miss your chance to pull it off?
For America’s 35M small businesses, tariff uncertainty hits especially hard
Imagine it’s April 2025 and you’re the owner of a small but fast-growing e-commerce business. Historically, you’ve sourced products from China, but the president just announced tariffs of 145% on these goods. Do you set up operations in Thailand – requiring new investment and a lot of work – or wait until there’s more clarity on trade? What if waiting too long means you miss your chance to pull it off?
Plantation tourism, memory and the uneasy economics of heritage in the American South
The American South – and the nation more broadly – continues to wrestle with how to remember its most painful chapters. Tourism is one of the arenas where that struggle is most visible.
Why people ignore debt letters – and what it says about inequality today
Thomas Andre Fure/ShutterstockYou get a payment reminder through the letterbox, maybe for a credit card, an overdraft, a bill, or a parking fine. You ignore it and leave the envelope unopened, or put it to one side to deal with later. Many of us will recognise this scenario.
Can Syria rebuild its economy from the ashes of war?
More than a decade of devastating conflict has left Syria’s economy in tatters, its infrastructure in ruins and its population deeply fragmented. The fledgling transitional government in Damascus, which came to power following a lightning rebel offensive in December 2024, often speaks of a “new Syria”.
Hand-to-mouth banks: deposit inflows and the marginal propensity to lend
In modern macroeconomics, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory income shocks is a central object of interest. This paper empirically explores a parallel concept in banking: the marginal propensity to lend out of unsolicited deposit inflows (MPLD). Using county-level dividend payouts as an instrument for deposit inflows, I estimate the MPLD for U.S. banks and show that before QE, the average bank operated “hand-to-mouth” — it transformed approximately every dollar of deposit inflow into new loans, consistent with tight liquidity constraints.
Hand-to-mouth banks: deposit inflows and the marginal propensity to lend
In modern macroeconomics, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory income shocks is a central object of interest. This paper empirically explores a parallel concept in banking: the marginal propensity to lend out of unsolicited deposit inflows (MPLD). Using county-level dividend payouts as an instrument for deposit inflows, I estimate the MPLD for U.S. banks and show that before QE, the average bank operated “hand-to-mouth” — it transformed approximately every dollar of deposit inflow into new loans, consistent with tight liquidity constraints.
Beyond averages: heterogeneous effects of monetary policy in a HANK model for the euro area
We introduce an estimated medium scale Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian model for forecasting and policy analysis in the Euro Area and discuss the applications of this type of models in central banks, focusing on two main exercises. First, we examine an alternative scenario for monetary policy during the early 2020s inflationary episode, showing that earlier hikes in interest rates would have affected more strongly households at the lower end of the wealth distribution, whose consumption our model suggests was already depressed relative to the rest of the population.
Beyond averages: heterogeneous effects of monetary policy in a HANK model for the euro area
We introduce an estimated medium scale Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian model for forecasting and policy analysis in the Euro Area and discuss the applications of this type of models in central banks, focusing on two main exercises. First, we examine an alternative scenario for monetary policy during the early 2020s inflationary episode, showing that earlier hikes in interest rates would have affected more strongly households at the lower end of the wealth distribution, whose consumption our model suggests was already depressed relative to the rest of the population.
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