Corporate bankruptcies in the euro area have been on the rise, but the aggregate asset quality of banks’ corporate lending has remained broadly stable. This special feature analyses this divergence and its implications for financial stability. It shows that rising bankruptcies may partly be explained by the normalisation of firm turnover since the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit with marked cross-country unevenness.
This special feature examines policy-assignment dilemmas facing macroprudential authorities when housing markets boom: which instruments work best, on which objectives, and in combination with which other tools? It does so by revitalising Mundell’s Principle of Effective Market Classification, the policy-space analogue of Ricardo’s comparative advantage principle, and by applying it to macroprudential policy.
Abhik Bhatt, Anthony M. Diercks, Benjamin Eyal, and Arsenios SkaperdasThis paper uses a natural experiment to measure the causal effect of an expected debt-financed fiscal stimulus on interest rates. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the expected US debt-to-GDP ratio leads to an increase of about 1-2 basis points in the longer-run neutral rate (r∗) and of about 2–3 basis points in the 10-year Treasury term premium.
Celso Brunetti, Christoph FreiWe study the rise of nonbank financial intermediation and its implications for systemic risk. We develop a structural network model of banks and nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) that decomposes intermediation into a capacity channel, driven by bank balance-sheet constraints, and a reliance channel, reflecting NBFI funding reliance. Using U.S. banking confidential supervisory data, we estimate key structural parameters and quantify both channels.
The war between Iran, the US and Israel has escalated into a major global crisis, with consequences that are reaching far beyond the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 25% of the world’s oil ordinarily passes, has rattled global energy markets.
Statistical Notices update the definitions and guidance contained in the Banking Statistics Yellow Folder
AI can detect financial fraud more efficiently than previous technology did, but it also flags legitimate transactions that it shouldn't. CardMapr.nl on Unsplash, CC BYImagine you’re at the supermarket checkout. Your cart is full. The line behind you is long. You tap your card. Declined.
You try again. Declined.
America’s bees and beekeepers are losing a valuable ally just when they need its help most.
This paper develops a sequential deep learning algorithm for solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The algorithm trains a deep neural network to approximate the model’s policy functions across four progressive phases: steady-state anchoring, exploration around the steady state, simulation on the ergodic set, and Monte Carlo integration of stochastic expectations.
This paper studies the employment effects of carbon pricing under the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS). I refer to standard methods from the literature to define and measure the environmental properties of jobs along two dimensions: how “green” a job is, and how polluting it is. I then leverage a series of shocks to EU-ETS prices to estimate their dynamic impacts on employment. The panel local projections estimates reveal that an exogenous 1% increase in EU-ETS prices leads to a roughly 0.2% decline in employment after one and a half years.
