What’s the secret to fixing the UK’s public finances? Here’s what our panel of experts would do

Unexpected growth in the UK economy isn’t enough to detract from the gaping hole in the country’s public finances. Speculation is ramping up about what steps the chancellor of the exchequer, Rachel Reeves, might take to plug the gap come the budget in autumn – and there are no shortage of ideas. The trouble is, each comes with risks and unknowns. Our experts have weighed up the evidence to offer their suggestions.

Bite the bullet – raise income tax

Maha Rafi Atal, Adam Smith Senior Lecturer in Political Economy, University of Glasgow

FEDS Paper: Options on Interbank Rates and Implied Disaster Risk(Revised)

Hitesh Doshi, Hyung Joo Kim, and Sang Byung SeoThe identification of disaster risk has remained a significant challenge due to the rarity of macroeconomic disasters. We show that the interbank market can help characterize the time variation in disaster risk. We propose a risk-based model in which macroeconomic disasters are likely to coincide with interbank market failure. Using interbank rates and their options, we estimate our model via MLE and filter the short-run and long-run components of disaster risk.

Crowdfunded companies are ‘ghosting’ their investors – and getting away with it

Imagine you invest US$500 to help a startup get off the ground through investment crowdfunding. The pitch is slick, the platform feels trustworthy and the company quickly raises its target amount from hundreds of people just like you. Then – silence. No updates, no financials, not even a thank-you.

You’ve been ghosted – not by a friend, but by a company you helped fund.

Crowdfunded companies are ‘ghosting’ their investors – and getting away with it

Imagine you invest US$500 to help a startup get off the ground through investment crowdfunding. The pitch is slick, the platform feels trustworthy and the company quickly raises its target amount from hundreds of people just like you. Then – silence. No updates, no financials, not even a thank-you.

You’ve been ghosted – not by a friend, but by a company you helped fund.

FEDS Paper: The Banking Panic in New Mexico in 1924 and the Response of the Federal Reserve

Mark CarlsonThere was a banking panic in New Mexico in early 1924 when about one-fourth of the banks in the state closed temporarily or permanently amid widespread runs. The Federal Reserve used both high profile and behind the scenes operations to calm the panic. This paper provides a history of this episode and explores how conspicuous and inconspicuous aspects of the Federal Reserve's response interacted to bolster confidence in the banking system.

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