FEDS Paper: Changing Jobs to Fight Inflation: Labor Market Reactions to Inflationary Shocks

Gorkem Bostanci, Omer Koru, and Sergio VillalvazoWe argue that inflationary shocks affect allocative efficiency by changing the rate and the characteristics of workers’ job-to-job transitions. First, using monetary policy shocks and survey data on search effort, we empirically show that a one percentage point rise in inflation increases job-to-job transitions by up to 4.5%, and workers with higher inflation expectations are more likely to search and do so more effectively.

FEDS Paper: How Stable are Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area? Evidence from the Euro-Area Financial Markets

Olesya V. Grishchenko, Franck Moraux, and Olga PakulyakWe analyze evolution of inflation expectations in the euro area (EA) using a novel measure of inflation expectations implied by the French nominal and inflation-indexed bonds. Overall, we find that EA inflation expectations have been relatively well anchored in the 2004–2019 sample but have been somewhat sensitive to the incoming macroeconomic news and monetary policy shocks in the sample that includes the COVID-19 pandemic.

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