The devil in the DeTail: assessing state-contingent tail effects of a releasable macroprudential capital buffer using a parsimonious agent-based framework

This paper develops an agent-based framework (DeTail) to assess the state-contingent tail effects of releasable macroprudential capital buffers. The model features heterogeneous firms, households, and banks, and a single central bank, all interacting in a fully integrated, stock-flow consistent framework which generates endogenous credit cycles. Using this approach, we evaluate how time-varying capital requirements affect the time-varying distributions of credit growth, firm and household default rates, and bank losses along the credit cycle.

Import tariff transmission in a production network

We find that whether US import tariffs have supply-side effects or demand-side effects on US manufacturing sectors depends on where the affected sectors are located in the US production network. Using local projections in a panel of US manufacturing sectors, we find that US import tariffs —including the 2018-19 tariff hikes— led to sectoral output contractions via two different channels: (1) Tariff increases act as negative supply shifters for sectors that use goods from tariff-facing sectors as input in production and thus face rising input costs.

Main findings from the ECB’s recent contacts with non-financial companies

This box summarises the main findings from recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 76 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which mainly took place between 22 June and 1 July 2026, activity continued to grow moderately in the second quarter with similar momentum expected for the third quarter. While the war in the Middle East was weighing on consumer spending somewhat, the overall impact on activity seemed limited as some firms benefited from less competition and precautionary stockbuilding.

Starbucks’ big marketing blunder in South Korea shows how cultural blind spots can put global brands in a bind

Protesters appear in front of Starbucks Korea headquarters in Seoul after the company launched its 'Tank Day' campaign, which sparked widespread backlash. Kichul Shin/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesWhen Starbucks Korea promoted its series of reusable tumblers called “tanks” with a “Tank Day” campaign on May 18, 2026, it probably seemed like a fun marketing idea.

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