IFDP Paper: Volatile Rates, Fragile Growth: Global Financial Risk and Productivity Dynamics

Nils Gornemann, Eugenio Rojas, Felipe SaffieDoes global financial risk affect long-run growth? Using a panel state-space model for emerging and advanced small open economies, we measure the effects of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty shocks. A one-standard-deviation shock lowers the level of the stochastic trend in emerging markets by at least 25 basis points after three years, with little effect in advanced economies.

FEDS Paper: Income Mobility of the Top One Percent

David Splinter and Jeff LarrimoreCirculation into and out of the top one percent is pronounced in the U.S. One third exit after a year and two-thirds exit after a decade. This mobility lowers top income shares when shifting from annual to multi-year income measures. Intragenerational mobility over two decades lowers recent top one percent fiscal income shares by over 10 percent. Two-decade mobility reduces top 0.1% shares by over 20 percent, top 0.01% shares by 30 percent, and top 0.001% shares by 40 percent.

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