The UK’s wealth ‘timebomb’ – and how to defuse it

When the full, unexpurgated diaries of the Conservative MP Sir Henry “Chips” Channon were published in 2021, these disarmingly frank accounts of his aristocratic life in mid-20th century Britain caused a stir. They revealed the inner thoughts of a renowned social climber and rightwing snob, whose political career never recovered from his record as an appeaser of Nazi Germany.

The protectionist gamble: How tariffs shape greenfield foreign direct investment

Motivated by current events, this paper assesses the impact of tariff increases on bilateral greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) over the period 2016-2023. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset of announced greenfield investment projects, official FDI statistics, and bilateral product-level tariff data, we estimate a series of gravity equations to uncover key relationships. Our results show that, at an aggregate level, tariff increases are associated with a rise in greenfield FDI, consistent with the tariff-jumping hypothesis.

Geopolitical risk, bank lending and real effects on firms: evidence from the Russian invasion of Ukraine

This paper investigates whether geopolitical risk causes a reduction in bank lending. In particular, it focuses on how the increase in geopolitical risk stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected euro area bank credit supply. Matching granular supervisory and credit register data and using a panel difference-in-difference approach, the results show that banks with larger exposure to the increase in geopolitical risk cut lending significantly more than those with smaller exposure.

Geopolitical risk, bank lending and real effects on firms: evidence from the Russian invasion of Ukraine

This paper investigates whether geopolitical risk causes a reduction in bank lending. In particular, it focuses on how the increase in geopolitical risk stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected euro area bank credit supply. Matching granular supervisory and credit register data and using a panel difference-in-difference approach, the results show that banks with larger exposure to the increase in geopolitical risk cut lending significantly more than those with smaller exposure.

The protectionist gamble: How tariffs shape greenfield foreign direct investment

Motivated by current events, this paper assesses the impact of tariff increases on bilateral greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) over the period 2016-2023. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset of announced greenfield investment projects, official FDI statistics, and bilateral product-level tariff data, we estimate a series of gravity equations to uncover key relationships. Our results show that, at an aggregate level, tariff increases are associated with a rise in greenfield FDI, consistent with the tariff-jumping hypothesis.

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