The UK’s small businesses should be fuelling the country’s growth ambitions. Here’s why that’s not happening

Today a van, tomorrow the world … with the right support. jgolby/ShutterstockThe UK government’s spending review has set out its priorities for the next three years. But behind the rhetoric about boosting growth lies growing concern about small businesses being locked out of the wider UK economy. Government funding and regulation are increasingly out of step with the reality of micro-enterprises and sole traders, shutting off their potential to boost GDP growth.

A new model to forecast energy inflation in the euro area

Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to model it accurately. This paper introduces a novel suite of Bayesian VAR models for euro area HICP energy inflation, which adopts a granular, bottom-up approach – disaggregating energy into subcomponents, such as fuels, gas, and electricity. The suite incorporates key features for energy prices: stochastic volatility, outlier correction, high-frequency indicators, and pre-tax price modelling.

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