College students are facing one of the most precarious labor markets in years. A recent New York Federal Reserve study pointed to a sharp increase in the post-college unemployed compared with other workers, with explanations ranging from artificial intelligence job displacement to a broader slowdown in hiring.

Prediction market operators allow speculation on sporting events. PJ McDonnell / ShutterstockRegular stock exchange observers will know all about prediction markets. Users buy and sell contracts that pay a fixed sum if a specified event occurs – a sports team wins a match, a candidate is elected.

Statistical Notices update the definitions and guidance contained in the Banking Statistics Yellow Folder

How does the effectiveness of monetary policy vary over the policy cycle? Do tightenings and loosenings have symmetric effects on the macroeconomy? This paper addresses these questions using a nonlinear empirical framework that allows financial exposure to evolve endogenously in response to macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy changes. We provide new evidence on how monetary policy effectiveness varies over the policy cycle and across economic states.