Banks’ regulatory risk tolerance

We employ 68 quarters of data – including from non-public supervisory sources – to study how 17 US and 17 euro-area banks balance the risk of breaching regulatory requirements against the cost of maintaining and speedily restoring “management” buffers. We find that steady-state management buffer targets systematically declined and regulatory risk tolerance (RRT) rose following the Great Financial Crisis, especially at banks experiencing a stronger increase in capital requirements.

Estimating the natural rate of interest in a macro-finance yield curve model

Using a novel macro-finance model we infer jointly the equilibrium real interest rate r*, trend inflation, interest rate expectations, and bond risk premia for the United States. In the model r* plays a dual macro-finance role: as the benchmark real interest rate that closes the output gap and as the time-varying long-run real interest rate that determines the level of the yield curve. Our estimated r* declines over the last decade, with estimation uncertainty being relatively contained. We show that both macro and financial information is important to infer r*.

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