IFDP Paper: When and for Whom Does the Sovereign-Bank Nexus Matter? Evidence from Post-Crisis Europe

Charlotte Hoopes, Pinar Uysal, and Ilknur ZerWe study whether sovereign risk continues to affect banks a decade after Europe began reshaping its financial architecture. Combining daily bank and sovereign credit default swap spreads with supervisory data on banks' domestic sovereign portfolios, we show that the sovereign-bank relationship remains economically meaningful but is highly conditional.

How different election results affect bank stability – global study

Recent elections in Brazil and Israel have yielded different political outcomes. In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s narrow and ultimately surprise victory in a presidential runoff vote has kept him in office.

In Israel, meanwhile, an inconclusive election result has left uncertainty over the formation of the next government. These outcomes are likely to have an effect on the stability of the financial systems in both countries.

The effects of geopolitical risk on sovereign debt holders in the euro area

We use confidential granular data on euro area sovereign bond holdings to examine the heterogeneous behavior of investor types in response to country-specific geopolitical risk shocks. By distinguishing investor categories and accounting for their bond holding dynamics over time, we provide an empirical assessment of how different bond holders react to geopolitics. The analysis employs country-level geopolitical risk indices of the country of sovereign bonds, and applies local projection methods to estimate the dynamic responses of various investor groups to geopolitical risk shocks.

The effects of geopolitical risk on sovereign debt holders in the euro area

We use confidential granular data on euro area sovereign bond holdings to examine the heterogeneous behavior of investor types in response to country-specific geopolitical risk shocks. By distinguishing investor categories and accounting for their bond holding dynamics over time, we provide an empirical assessment of how different bond holders react to geopolitics. The analysis employs country-level geopolitical risk indices of the country of sovereign bonds, and applies local projection methods to estimate the dynamic responses of various investor groups to geopolitical risk shocks.

Main findings from the ECB’s recent contacts with non-financial companies

This box summarises the main findings from recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 64 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which mainly took place between 28 September and 7 October 2026, activity continued to grow moderately in the third quarter with similar momentum expected for the fourth quarter. Growth was particularly focused in high-value manufacturing and IT services, while growth in consumer spending was relatively weak. Employment dynamics remained subdued, with many firms in cost-cutting mode.

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