IFDP Paper: Food, Fuel, and Facts: Distributional Effects of Global Price Shocks

Saroj Bhattarai, Arpita Chatterjee, and Gautham UdupaWe estimate distributional implications of global food and oil price shocks by utilizing monthly panel data on consumption and income from India, and an IV strategy that removes variation coming from global demand shocks. While both shocks lead to stagflationary aggregate dynamics, they differ in terms of distributional consequences.

Trump’s new tariff regime has begun after months of chaos and uncertainty. But is his approach working?

The beginning of August marks the latest deadline for US president Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff policy. This era of chaos and uncertainty began on April 2 and the situation remaims fluid. With the deadline for partners to secure a deal with Washington now passed, it’s a good time to take a broader view and consider if Trump’s trade gamble is paying off.

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