Tariffs, production networks, and spillovers: the case of a US-China trade war

We study the short-run macroeconomic transmission of a US–China tariff war in an open economy multi-sector New Keynesian model with input–output linkages, sectoral nominal rigidities, and heterogeneous currency invoicing. A reciprocal 10 percentage-point tariff increase generates asymmetric incidence: the tariff-imposing country bears more of the inflationary burden, while the targeted country experiences the larger output contraction. Production networks amplify this contraction by propagating the shock beyond the directly tariffed bilateral margin.

Tariffs, production networks, and spillovers: the case of a US-China trade war

We study the short-run macroeconomic transmission of a US–China tariff war in an open economy multi-sector New Keynesian model with input–output linkages, sectoral nominal rigidities, and heterogeneous currency invoicing. A reciprocal 10 percentage-point tariff increase generates asymmetric incidence: the tariff-imposing country bears more of the inflationary burden, while the targeted country experiences the larger output contraction. Production networks amplify this contraction by propagating the shock beyond the directly tariffed bilateral margin.

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