Central bank independence and risk-taking at the zero lower bound

Unprecedented balance sheet expansion in recent years has resulted in heightened financial risk for central banks, reflected initially in higher profits and subsequently in significant losses. Combining data on central bank balance sheets with market data on asset prices, we provide evidence on the evolution and determinants of financial risk-taking by 18 advanced economy central banks. Based on the estimated Value at Risk (VaR), we document that average central bank balance sheet risk increased to about 3 percent of GDP.

Beyond the short run: monetary policy and innovation investment

This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy on innovation investment using unique firm-level data. First, we document the effect of a large, systematic monetary tightening (ECB rate increases from 0% to 4.5% during 2022-23), with average firm-level innovation cuts of 20%. These cuts persist over the medium term, indicating a sustained innovation slowdown. Second, we use the survey to identify elasticities of innovation expenditure to exogenous policy rate changes.

Central bank independence and risk-taking at the zero lower bound

Unprecedented balance sheet expansion in recent years has resulted in heightened financial risk for central banks, reflected initially in higher profits and subsequently in significant losses. Combining data on central bank balance sheets with market data on asset prices, we provide evidence on the evolution and determinants of financial risk-taking by 18 advanced economy central banks. Based on the estimated Value at Risk (VaR), we document that average central bank balance sheet risk increased to about 3 percent of GDP.

Beyond the short run: monetary policy and innovation investment

This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy on innovation investment using unique firm-level data. First, we document the effect of a large, systematic monetary tightening (ECB rate increases from 0% to 4.5% during 2022-23), with average firm-level innovation cuts of 20%. These cuts persist over the medium term, indicating a sustained innovation slowdown. Second, we use the survey to identify elasticities of innovation expenditure to exogenous policy rate changes.

As the UK reviews the pension age again, could more time off when you’re young compensate for later retirement?

The retirement age keeps creeping up. In the UK, the state pension is currently paid to people at 66, but that’s set to rise to 67 in the next couple of years, and a move to 68 might come sooner than previously planned after the government launched a review.

Gradually increasing the working lifespan is never going to be popular. But one way of making this policy more palatable could be to give people early access to some of the free time that retirement promises.

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