The 2021-24 inflation surge through the lens of the ECB-BASE model

The start of Russia’s war on Ukraine in early 2022 led to major errors in inflation and GDP growth forecasts from December 2021 onwards. By the end of 2022 inflation projections were off by 8 percentage points and GDP projections by nearly 1 percentage point. Using the ECB-BASE model, this study finds that about 70% of the inflation error stemmed from unexpected energy and food price shocks. Energy prices were the main drivers in 2022, while food prices gained influence in 2023. Fiscal policies initially eased inflation but later this effect was reversed.

Who wants to work more? Revisiting the decline in average hours worked

Average hours worked (AHW) have been declining in recent years, falling particularly strongly during the pandemic before returning to trend. This box examines the key drivers behind the decline in AHW, with two factors playing a dominant role. First, the proportion of employees working zero hours during the reference week spiked during the pandemic – owing to the closure of businesses and higher sick leave rates – and recovered only slowly. Second, the proportion of employees working very long hours has continued to fall over the past decade.

Medium-term fiscal-structural plans under the revised Stability and Growth Pact

This article analyses the medium-term fiscal-structural plans that euro area countries have submitted under the revised Stability and Growth Pact. It discusses the fiscal and economic implications of this framework over the short and medium term, also factoring in – on a preliminary basis and acknowledging the major uncertainty ahead – the recent proposal by the European Commission to activate the national escape clause in the Stability and Growth Pact in a coordinated manner.

Best Curacao Licensed Online Casinos 2025

Players interested in online gambling are advised to select licensed online casinos. Credible licensing is mandatory for online casinos. Participants can expect a larger game collection consisting of all types of casino and sports betting products under a single license. Curacao-licensed Online casinos must adhere to a variety of safety and security measures for the ...

Pages

Subscribe to Front page feed