How US financial markets react to geopolitical shocks hitting oil supply

This box assesses how energy supply disruptions associated with geopolitical shocks are transmitted to US financial markets, leveraging on the indicator developed by Iacoviello and Tong (2026). Whereas negative geopolitical events typically reduce output, they are ambiguous with respect to inflation. However, those that also constrain global oil supply are inflationary and lead to deeper recessions. In these cases, stock prices fall more persistently, the dollar appreciates markedly, and risk metrics such as corporate bond spreads increase and remain elevated.

FEDS Paper: Sequence-Space Jacobians of Life-Cycle Models

Bence Bardóczy, Akshay Shanker, and Mateo Velásquez-GiraldoThe sequence-space Jacobian (SSJ) method of Auclert et al. (2021a) has made heterogeneous-agent models far easier to solve, fueling an explosion of applications. But even SSJ strains against capacity constraints when state spaces grow very large, as in economies with overlapping generations of heterogeneous agents (HA-OLG).

FEDS Paper: An Evaluation of Difference-in-Differences Methods Using Placebo Event Studies

John Coglianese and Jade A. FangResearchers are faced with the choice of which of the many recently developed difference-in-differences methods to use in practice. To assess these estimators' relative performance for single-unit event studies, we conduct 134,000+ state-level placebo event studies across 13 estimators. We find that no single method dominates.

Businesses often row back on ethics when times get tough. Here’s how technology can keep them on track

Five carmakers are involved in a case at the High Court in London over claims that they cheated on emissions tests. A decade ago, the “dieselgate” scandal broke, eventually forcing Volkswagen to pay billions of euros in fines and settlements. These carmakers (Mercedes, Ford, Peugeot/Citroën, Renault and Nissan) have all faced accusations that selling cars was more important to them than their environmental responsibilities. They all deny the allegations.

FEDS Paper: The Response of Equity Yields to a Long-Run Shock

Martijn Boons, Anthony M. Diercks, Petra Sinagl, and Andrea TamoniWe study how macroeconomic developments affect asset prices by analyzing the response of equity yields to a well-identified long-run growth shock. Using synthetic equity yield data from Giglio et al. (2024), we show that a positive long-run shock steepens the equity yield curve by increasing expected dividend growth while leaving discount rates largely unchanged.

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