We develop an endogenous threshold VAR that addresses contemporaneous dependence between the threshold variable and reduced-form innovations— a pervasive issue when regime indicators are jointly determined with system dynamics. A regime-specific copula-based control function removes this dependence instrument-free, without parametric assumptions on the threshold’s marginal distribution, while preserving the linear regime-wise least-squares structure.

On July 15 2026, England were just five tantalising minutes away from their first men’s World Cup final since 1966. But that was before Argentina scored two goals to claim victory in stoppage time.

The next morning, the professional reputation of England’s head coach Thomas Tuchel had taken quite a hit. So too had the London stock market, which dipped by 0.5% shortly after opening.

Monetary policy tightening generates valuation losses on banks’ securities portfolios, reducing the collateral available for interbank borrowing. Using detailed euro area data, we show that banks with larger securities losses during the 2022-23 monetary policy tightening cycle obtained less interbank funding and reduced lending to firms, even when losses did not affect regulatory capital. These effects were strongest for banks with limited liquidity buffers and high collateral utilisation.

This study investigates the effect of the large shock to energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on bank credit to firms. To isolate the causal effect of the shock, it compares bank lending to high-energy-intensive firms to that of similar low-energy-intensive firms. Following the shock, bank credit to high-energy-intensive firms persistently declined, while their interest rates on new loans rose and other loan terms tightened.