The fate of Lisa Cook, who is fighting attempts by President Donald Trump to remove her from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, has huge implications for a keystone of good economic policy: central bank independence.
We would like to thank Philipp Lane, Klaus Adam, Michael Ehrmann, Christophe Kamps, Timo Reinelt, Annalisa Ferrando, Philippine Cour-Thimann, Felix Hammermann, Davide Romelli, Andreas Kapounek, and colleagues from DG Communication for for their valuable feedback on earlier versions of this paper. This paper was presented at the 2025 AEA Conference in San Francisco, and we appreciate the feedback and suggestions received from the participants.
We would like to thank Philipp Lane, Klaus Adam, Michael Ehrmann, Christophe Kamps, Timo Reinelt, Annalisa Ferrando, Philippine Cour-Thimann, Felix Hammermann, Davide Romelli, Andreas Kapounek, and colleagues from DG Communication for for their valuable feedback on earlier versions of this paper. This paper was presented at the 2025 AEA Conference in San Francisco, and we appreciate the feedback and suggestions received from the participants.
The famed short-seller reminds us that technology might advance, but we’re still a pretty predictable bunch of apes.
KTStock/Getty ImagesWhen artificial intelligence (AI) enters the classroom, the focus is often on the risk of plagiarism or shortcuts.
Anil K. Jain and Siddharth KothariPoorer countries (and poorer states within India) have a larger share of manufacturing employment in small plants. This paper presents empirical evidence and a theoretical model to show that this relationship is driven by greater demand for lower quality goods in poorer regions, which can be produced efficiently in small plants. First, using data for India, we show that richer households buy higher price goods and larger plants produce higher price products.
This paper examines the effects of trade policy shocks on the US economy using a novel identification strategy that combines narrative information on trade policy changes with stock market data. We introduce a new data set of daily trade policy statements from 2007 to 2019, allowing us to capture a comprehensive range of trade policy actions. By analyzing stock price reactions of trade-exposed and non-trade-exposed firms around these statements, we can identify unanticipated trade policy shocks.
This paper examines the effects of trade policy shocks on the US economy using a novel identification strategy that combines narrative information on trade policy changes with stock market data. We introduce a new data set of daily trade policy statements from 2007 to 2019, allowing us to capture a comprehensive range of trade policy actions. By analyzing stock price reactions of trade-exposed and non-trade-exposed firms around these statements, we can identify unanticipated trade policy shocks.
Colin Caines and Amartya LahiriSaving rates are significantly different across countries and remain different for long periods of time. This paper provides an explanation for this phenomenon. We formalize a model of a world economy comprised of open economies inhabited by heterogeneous agents endowed with recursive preferences. Our assumed preferences imply increasing marginal impatience of agents as their consumption rises relative to average consumption of a reference group.
Anna Lipińska, Enrique Martínez García, and Felipe SchwartzmanThis paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses. The inflation surge in the U.S. and abroad was set in motion by two global events: the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
