FEDS Paper: CardSim: A Bayesian Simulator for Payment Card Fraud Detection Research

02/28/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Jeffrey S. AllenPayment fraud has been high in recent years, and as criminals gain access to capability-enhancing generative AI tools, there is a growing need for innovative fraud detection research. However, the pace, diversity, and reproducibility of such research are inhibited by the dearth of publicly available payment transaction data. A few payment simulation methodologies have been developed to help narrow the payment transaction data gap without compromising important data privacy and security expectations.

IFDP Paper: How do Firms in Different Sectors Organize their Supply Chains? Evidence from Transaction-Level Import Data

02/27/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Sebastian Heise, Justin R. Pierce, Georg Schaur, and Peter K. SchottHeise et al. (2021) develop a model-based empirical measure—sellers per shipment (SPS)—to characterize how firms organize supply chains in response to a quality control problem. High SPS indicates spot-market purchasing with costly inspections, while low SPS suggests long-term relationships where buyers pay an incentive premium to prevent cheating.

The heterogeneous effects of household debt relief

02/26/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Large-scale debt forbearance is a key policy tool during crises, yet targeting is challenging due to information asymmetries. Using transaction-level data from a Portuguese bank during COVID-19, we find that financially fragile households are more likely to enter forbearance, irrespective of income shocks. Mortgage payment suspension increases consumption and savings, but effects differ across households. Low liquid wealth and income are associated with a higher marginal propensity to consume.

Your super fund is invested in private markets. What are they and why has ASIC raised concerns?

02/25/2025 The Conversation News & Comments

If you are a member of a super fund, some of your long-term savings are probably invested in private markets.

Public markets are familiar to most of us – the stock market and government and corporate bond markets. Private markets include unlisted assets such as companies owned by private equity firms, infrastructure investments and private credit markets.

The gold price has surged to record highs. What’s behind the move?

02/24/2025 The Conversation News & Comments

The gold price has surged to a new all-time high above US$2,900 (A$4,544) an ounce this month.

It has risen by 12% since the start of the year and clearly outperformed US and Australian stock markets. The US stock index S&P500 is up 4% and the ASX 200 has gained just 2% in that time.

That follows an extraordinary run in 2024, when the precious metal surged 27%, the biggest rise in 14 years.

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