FEDS Paper: Validating Large Language Model Annotations

Anne Lundgaard HansenThis paper proposes a validation framework for LLM-generated measurements when reliable benchmarks are unavailable. Validity is established by testing whether an LLM can reconstruct passages from annotated labels while maintaining semantic consistency with the original text. The framework avoids circular reasoning by establishing testable prerequisite properties that must be met for a validation to be considered successful.

Supreme Court’s tariff decision still leaves a ‘mess’ for companies trying to grab refunds

Containers are stacked up in a cargo terminal in Frankfurt, Germany. AP Photo/Michael ProbstU.S. companies stung by President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs had hoped for relief when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 in their favor. But settling on a remedy – namely, rebate checks from the government – may be an even bigger headache.

PRA fines The Bank of London and its parent company Oplyse Holdings Limited £2m for failing to act with integrity and misleading the PRA over their capital position

The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) has fined The Bank of London Group Limited and Oplyse Holdings Limited (formerly The Bank of London Group Holdings Limited) £2 million for misleading the PRA over their capital positions, failing to act with integrity, failing to be open and cooperative with the regulator and failing to maintain adequate financial resources.

Green supply chains at risk: measuring the true economic and environmental costs

Our new methodology builds an inter-country input-output table that distinguishes green products from the rest, allowing us to assess vulnerabilities in green value chains. In a multi-country, multi-sector model, our table reveals that a decoupling of green supply chains between a US-centric West and a China-centric East could globally cut trade in green products by up to 20%, lower welfare by up to 3% and raise yearly global greenhouse gas emissions by about 50 million tonnes.

FEDS Paper: AI and Coder Employment: Compiling the Evidence

Leland D. Crane and Paul E. SotoWe evaluate whether LLMs have had any discernible impact on the aggregate labor market so far. We focus on occupations that are computer programming-intensive, motivated by data showing that coding is one of the most LLM-exposed tasks. Linking O*NET to CPS we find that aggregate employment of coders has decelerated sharply since the introduction of ChatGPT.

FEDS Paper: Queuing, Service Time, and Price Dynamics in Residential Mortgage Lending

Akos Horvath and Benjamin S. KayBuilding on queuing theory, we develop and empirically validate a novel theoretical model of residential mortgage supply. Our model gives insight into how the stochastic arrival and sequential servicing of loan applications affect mortgage origination. The model provides closed-form predictions for lenders’ optimal response to changes in the level and price elasticity of mortgage demand.

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