Financial frictions across the production network and the transmission of monetary policy

We show that monetary policy transmission is shaped not only by a sector’s own financial frictions but also by those prevailing in the broader production network. The latter, indirect frictions amplify the output and price effects of monetary policy and empirically dominate the direct ones. The amplification results from a downstream demand channel, as customers respond to tighter policy by purchasing fewer inputs. This is partly offset by an upstream cost channel, reflecting that suppliers raise prices to protect margins when financing costs rise.

An insider once in charge of failing banks lifts the lid on banking

Hunters Race/UnsplashHarrison Young has had a long and distinguished international career in banking and finance. He started in senior executive roles in major United States banks, then became a US financial regulator, with responsibility for the resolution of failing banks. He was also a director of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia for ten years, and was on the court of directors of the Bank of England.

MuSE: a multiple macro-financial scenario simulation engine for stress testing

We design an econometric framework to simulate multiple adverse macro-financial scenarios that can be used in top-down stress tests. First, we create a financial stress index informed by shocks generated via a non-parametric copula estimated on a large dataset of daily financial indicators. Second, we simulate the joint dynamics of macroeconomic indicators conditional on the copula-based financial shocks in a large multi-country Bayesian VAR model.

Forecasting the euro area job vacancy rate with earnings calls data

We analyse whether textual information extracted from firms’ earnings calls can improve forecasts of the euro area job vacancy rate. Using transcripts from euro area headquartered firms, we construct a monthly indicator of labour demand based on keywords related to labour market pressures and include it into a mixed frequency Bayesian VAR alongside standard hard and soft indicators. A pseudo–real-time evaluation shows that earnings calls provide timely and valuable signals for tracking vacancy dynamics.

To Fix Health Care, Treat It as a System: Memorandum to Senator Ronald Wyden and Democratic Members of the Senate Finance Committee

Senate Finance Committee Democrats are seeking evidence and proposals to shape health-care legislation. Their critique of insurers has merit, but reforms confined to insurance risk leaving hospitals, conglomerates, and much of the system’s extraction untouched, sets the stage for further disappointment.

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