IFDP Paper: Inequality and Asset Prices during Sudden Stops(Revised)

Sergio VillalvazoThis paper studies the cross-sectional dimension of Fisher's debt-deflation mechanism that triggers endogenous Sudden Stop crises-i.e., episodes with large reversals in the current account. Analyzing microdata from Mexico, we show that this dimension has macroeconomic implications that operate via opposing effects. First, an amplifying effect by which households with high leverage fire-sale their assets during crises, increasing downward pressure on asset prices.

FEDS Paper: Hysteresis and the Role of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from U.S. States(Revised)

Hie Joo Ahn and Yunjong EoThis paper empirically investigates the sources of hysteresis, emphasizing the role of downward nominal wage rigidity using U.S. state-level payroll employment growth. U.S. states exhibit heterogeneous recoveries, with L-shaped and U-shaped recessions corresponding to persistent hysteresis and full recovery. L-shaped recessions are importantly driven by demand shocks and reinforced by downward nominal wage rigidity, which prolongs employment losses by raising real wages and deepening downturns.

Financial integration and the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area

We study how financial integration shapes the transmission of monetary policy to consumer prices and output in the euro area. Using local projections, we document that the effect of financial integration is continuous: greater integration systematically strengthens the pass-through of monetary policy. When integration falls to low levels—around the first quartile of its historical distribution— transmission to both prices and output becomes statistically and economically insignificant. The amplification pattern is pervasive across member states and more pronounced in peripheral economies.

The climate-biodiversity-pollution nexus: the pricing of environmental credit risks for European

This study examines how euro area banks factor pollution-induced biodiversity risks into lending decisions, using data from 832 banks and 5,000 major polluters. Our results show that banks are increasingly pricing these risks by adjusting loan-to-value ratios and interest rates. Banks adjust lending conditions in line with EU pollution and biodiversity protection legislation, particularly for companies with large pollution footprints near biodiversity-protected areas or those contributing to Environmental Quality Standards failures of downstream surface waters.

Struggling to find a job? Three reasons why the UK labour market is stuck right now

Irene Miller/ShutterstokBritain’s jobs market appears to have entered a “low-hire, low-fire” freeze, creating stagnation that could affect everyone from school-leavers to professionals. But unlike recessions characterised by mass layoffs, this scenario represents a market in which workers cling to their jobs while newcomers find the door shut.

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