When it comes to finance, ‘normal’ data is actually pretty weird

When business researchers analyze data, they often rely on assumptions to help make sense of what they find. But like anyone else, they can run into a whole lot of trouble if those assumptions turn out to be wrong – which may happen more often than they realize. That’s what we found in a recent study looking at financial data from about a thousand major U.S. companies.

When it comes to finance, ‘normal’ data is actually pretty weird

When business researchers analyze data, they often rely on assumptions to help make sense of what they find. But like anyone else, they can run into a whole lot of trouble if those assumptions turn out to be wrong – which may happen more often than they realize. That’s what we found in a recent study looking at financial data from about a thousand major U.S. companies.

Is Fedwire Still a Subsidy That Fully Recovers Its Cost?

The Federal Reserve is experiencing something new in its history: sustained and sizable operating losses. These losses—currently running at more than $100 billion a year on an annualized basis—stem largely from the sharp rise in short-term interest rates, which has increased the interest the Fed pays on bank reserves while the income from its long-term securities portfolio remains comparatively low.

The impact of climate litigation risk on firms’ cost of bank loans

Using a novel worldwide dataset of 5,264 syndicated loans issued to 329 firms from 2006 to 2021, we study how climate-related litigation risk affects firm’s cost of borrowing. We find robust empirical evidence that firms targeted by climate lawsuits pay significantly higher spreads on their bank loans. These effects are more pronounced for firms with weaker environmental performance and higher ESG controversies. The results suggest that lender’s view climate litigation as a material risk factor, which is increasingly priced into debt contracts.

FEDS Paper: From Bank Lending Standards to Bank Credit Conditions: An SVAR Approach

Vihar Dalal, Daniel A. Dias, and Pinar UysalThis paper uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model—identified with an external monetary policy instrument and sign restrictions—to derive a measure of bank credit conditions from changes in bank lending standards. The model incorporates data on interest rates, bank credit, and survey-based measures of bank lending standards to identify monetary policy, credit demand, and credit supply shocks.

FEDS Paper: The Theory of Financial Stability Meets Reality

Nina Boyarchenko, Kinda Hachem, and Anya KleymenovaA large literature at the intersection of economics and finance offers prescriptions for regulating banks to increase financial stability. This literature abstracts from the discretion that accounting standards give banks over financial reporting, creating a gap between the information assumed to be available to regulators in models of optimal regulation and the information available to regulators in reality.

For America’s 35M small businesses, tariff uncertainty hits especially hard

Imagine it’s April 2025 and you’re the owner of a small but fast-growing e-commerce business. Historically, you’ve sourced products from China, but the president just announced tariffs of 145% on these goods. Do you set up operations in Thailand – requiring new investment and a lot of work – or wait until there’s more clarity on trade? What if waiting too long means you miss your chance to pull it off?

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