Edmund Crawley and William L. GamberWe estimate how much household spending responds directly to changes in interest rates. We develop a Bayesian procedure that uses the empirical impulse responses to macroeconomic shocks to discipline the consumer block of a HANK model. The procedure can be applied shock-by-shock or pooled jointly.
Matthieu Bussière, Johanna Gilbert, and Olesya GrishchenkoUsing data on euro-area household inflation forecasts from the European Commission Consumer Survey, we show that households' perceptions of recent price changes play a key role in the formation of their inflation expectations. Such a relationship remains robust when we account for specific inflation components, household characteristics, and macroeconomic conditions, even though the perceptions-expectations relationship is heterogeneous across countries.
Central bank money is still accounted for as debt, a legacy of an earlier monetary order. Treating sovereign money as equity would clarify central bank balance sheets, strengthen institutional transparency, and better prepare monetary systems for future digital-era design choices.
Many online shoppers who order from independent small retailers have no idea who ships their goods. Odds are growing that it's Amazon. AP Photo/Damian DovarganesYou did the right thing this morning.
Indranil Aditya/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesThe recently signed free trade agreement between New Zealand and India has so far been discussed and debated in very broad terms: the size of the Indian market, opportunities for exporters, implications for immigration.
Global health financing is collapsing just as demands on health systems are rising. As funding retreats and reform debates intensify, a deeper question emerges about who bears the costs, and whether today’s fixes risk creating lasting damage that will be difficult to reverse.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming financial decision-making. To explore the implications for financial stability we ran simulation-based experiments on two different AI architectures. We found that Q-learning algorithms, a form of reinforcement learning, achieved a high degree of coordination, but were prone to bank run-like dynamics. In contrast, large language models , which rely on contextual reasoning, were less prone to such runs but generated heterogeneous and unpredictable behaviour.
Equality runs deeper than preference or policy fashion, rooted in human social instincts and reflected in outcomes across societies. It is time for economics and policy alike to reckon with how profoundly distribution shapes well-being and social stability.
Equality runs deeper than economics textbooks or policy fashions suggest. Across disciplines, evidence increasingly links more equal societies to stronger well-being, greater social trust, and healthier democracies, challenging the assumption that fairness must come at the expense of prosperity or economic dynamism.
Coles has been found to have misled its supermarket customers over discounts – and could now face hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties.
In a landmark case, Federal Court Justice Michael O'Bryan found 13 out of 14 sample sale tickets examined in the case had not offered genuine discounts, because Coles had not sold the products at a higher price for a reasonable period before promoting them with “Down Down” discounts.
